EG价格回落，关注美伊局势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of EG has dropped, with the main contract closing at 5,119 yuan/ton (down 455 yuan/ton or 8.16% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market at 5,236 yuan/ton (down 234 yuan/ton or 4.28% from the previous trading day). The EG load continues to decline, and the port starts to destock [1]. - On the supply side, domestic EG load decreases due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, and overseas supply is at a low level. With a large proportion of EG imports from the Middle East, imports are expected to further shrink under the influence of the Iranian situation. On the demand side, the load of polyester and weaving industries is difficult to increase further, and downstream industries have low acceptance of high - priced raw materials. There are more voices of production cuts, the sales of filament have been continuously sluggish recently, the inventory of filament and staple fiber has accumulated rapidly, and the polyester load is lower than that of the same period last year. If downstream industries do not replenish inventory continuously, the load may decline [2]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side trading, it is advisable to cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. Destocking will start in March and is expected to accelerate in April. Recently, inquiries from some Asian countries to China have increased. With imports at a low level and overseas exports, the destocking of the EG social inventory will accelerate significantly. Attention should be paid to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz and changes in EG plants. For inter - period trading, a long 5 - short 9 spread is recommended under the influence of supply. There is no recommendation for cross - variety trading [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract is 5,119 yuan/ton (down 455 yuan/ton or 8.16% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market is 5,236 yuan/ton (down 234 yuan/ton or 4.28% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China is - 55 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG is - 248 US dollars/ton (up 13 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG is 778 yuan/ton (up 372 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the given content Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The sales of filament have been continuously sluggish recently, and the inventory of filament and staple fiber has accumulated rapidly. The polyester load is lower than that of the same period last year. If downstream industries do not replenish inventory continuously, the load may decline [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China is 1.039 million tons (up 28,000 tons month - on - month), and the ports slightly accumulated inventory last week. This week, the total planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China is 117,000 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 10,000 tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable [1].