成交略有下滑,豆粕维持震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-03-25 05:13
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn industries is cautiously bullish [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bean meal market, although Brazilian new - season soybeans have a bumper harvest, downstream oil mills' inventories are continuously being consumed. If there are unexpected issues with future arrivals, the domestic market may face temporary supply shortages. Supported by cost and US soybeans, domestic bean meal prices are more likely to rise than fall [3] - In the corn market, the current inventory of deep - processing enterprises is still low, and they tend to raise prices to encourage purchases, which further supports corn prices. Feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and prefer substitutes. The corn price at northern ports remains strong. With good wheat auction results and potential increases in auction volume, and rumors of rice auctions, the overall corn market supply is tight, and prices are expected to remain strong under the influence of high wheat prices [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2961 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 46 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.53%. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2365 yuan/ton, a change of - 34 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.42% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3320 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 359, a change of + 36 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 3230 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 269, a change of + 6. In Guangdong, it was 3330 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 369, a change of + 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2410 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 45, a change of + 4 [1] - Market Information: As of the week ending March 19, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.102 million tons, with a market expectation of 600,000 - 1.15 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 981,000 tons. In the first three weeks of March, Brazil exported 9.501 million tons of soybeans, with a daily average export volume of 633,000 tons, an 18% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 771,000 tons in March last year [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - Downstream oil mills' inventories are continuously being consumed. If future arrivals are affected, the domestic market may face temporary supply shortages. Supported by cost and US soybeans, domestic bean meal prices are more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to US soybean planting, future arrivals, and macro - events [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bullish [4] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2383 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 32 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.33%. The closing price of the corn starch 2605 contract was 2772 yuan/ton, a change of - 33 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.18% [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C05 + 27, a change of + 37 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS05 + 128, a change of + 33 from the previous day [4] - Market Information: As of the week ending March 19, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.7 million tons, with a market expectation of 1.4 - 2.05 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 1.67 million tons. In the first three weeks of March, Brazil exported 784,000 tons of corn, with a daily average export volume of 52,000 tons, a 14% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 46,000 tons in March last year [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - Current inventories of deep - processing enterprises are low, so they raise prices to encourage purchases, which supports corn prices. Feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and use substitutes. Corn prices at northern ports remain strong. With good wheat auction results and potential increases in auction volume, and rumors of rice auctions, the overall corn market supply is tight, and prices are expected to remain strong [5][6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bullish [7]
成交略有下滑,豆粕维持震荡 - Reportify