国内1-2月卡客车轮胎出口延续增长

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is rated cautiously bullish [11] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is expected to gradually increase, but the pressure is not yet apparent, and the cost - side support remains strong. The downstream tire factory's operating rate has increased, but factors such as the Iran conflict and compressed tire factory profits will suppress future demand. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate and adjust in the near term, and the strength of synthetic rubber will drive up the price of natural rubber after the price difference between natural and synthetic rubber is repaired. For BR, due to upstream production losses, the supply will continue to decline, and the downstream tire factory's operating rate is rising. Although there are factors suppressing demand, the supply - demand situation will continue to improve, and the price is expected to remain strong before the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked [11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 16,225 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,310 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 16,800 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,380 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,990 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,930 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 17,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Tire Exports: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 730,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The export regions showed obvious differentiation, with the export increment to Africa being the most prominent, and the export to developed regions being relatively weak [2] - Automobile Production and Sales: In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 31.7% and 23.1% and year - on - year decreases of 20.5% and 15.2% [2] - Rubber Imports: From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 1.404 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% [2] - Heavy - Truck Sales: In February 2026, the wholesale sales of heavy - trucks were about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% and a year - on - year decrease of about 8%. From January to February, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2] - Global Natural Rubber Production and Consumption: In January 2026, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 4.3% to 1.409 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the consumption was expected to increase by 4.4% to 1.287 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The global natural rubber production in 2026 was expected to increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons [3] - Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports: In January 2026, Thailand exported 214,000 tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The exports to China were 77,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On March 24, 2026, the RU basis was - 125 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 845 yuan/ton (-70), the NR basis was 410.00 yuan/ton (-33.00); the whole latex was 16,100 yuan/ton (+100), the mixed rubber was 15,380 yuan/ton (+150), the 3L spot was 16,600 yuan/ton (+100); the STR20 was quoted at 1,990 US dollars/ton (+35), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between the mixed rubber and butadiene styrene was - 3,320 yuan/ton (-350) [4][5] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 75.45 Thai baht/kg (+0.96), Thai glue was 76.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), Thai cup lump was 57.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 18.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.00) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 72.21% (+0.41%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 79.32% (+0.59%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 685,569 tons (+8,000), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,360,805 tons (-4,066), the RU futures inventory was 125,440 tons (+4,600), and the NR futures inventory was 48,082 tons (-1,209) [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spread: On March 24, 2026, the BR basis was 200 yuan/ton (+870), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 18,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 18,500 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 17,400 yuan/ton (+200), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 17,000 yuan/ton (+400), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,442 yuan/ton (-1,961) [8] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.58% (-12.52%) [9] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 8,610 tons (-470), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 34,000 tons (-1,350) [10]