有色商品日报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated with an upward trend, and the import window for domestic spot refined copper remained open. The US March composite PMI output index was 51.4, lower than February's 51.9, hitting a new low since April last year. The manufacturing and service industries showed a differentiated trend. The service industry index dropped to 51.1, also a new low in 11 months, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, a two - month high. The market continued to focus on the US - Iran conflict. Trump said that the US - Iran negotiations "might be quite close to reaching an agreement", and Iran agreed to never have nuclear weapons. Reports indicated that the US intended to cease fire for a month and proposed 15 peace negotiation plans. The expectation of a缓和 in the US - Iran attitude was the main factor for the recent improvement in market sentiment, but the US - Iran negotiations and the conflict's direction remained uncertain. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased by 11,800 tons to 359,275 tons, Comex inventory increased by 681 tons to 533,628 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 11,405 tons to 262,710 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts decreased by 175 tons to 13,911 tons. In terms of demand, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory increased after the copper price declined. The US - Iran conflict remained the focus, and there was a seesaw effect between crude oil and copper. The conflict's direction would be the main trading factor in the future, meaning high market volatility still existed. After the copper price quickly declined to release the accumulated risks from the macro - environment and fundamental contradictions, it was expected to enter a shock - bottoming stage with "support at the bottom and lack of upward drive". The core logic was that the macro - suppression was weakening at the margin but not reversed, while the fundamental support was substantially strengthening. The strategy suggested changing from being cautiously bearish to range - bound operation, gradually laying out long positions at key support levels, and paying attention to the copper price performance in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2605 closing at 2,962 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.19%. The open interest increased by 4,909 lots to 236,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2605 closing at 23,810 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.42%. The open interest increased by 5,051 lots to 266,000 lots. Aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly, with the overnight main contract AD2604 closing at 22,855 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.68%. The open interest decreased by 74 lots to 3,979 lots. In the spot market, the SMM alumina price rebounded to 2,757 yuan/ton. The spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed to 140 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 quotation rebounded to 23,440 yuan/ton, with a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the Wuxi A00. The processing fees of aluminum rods in many places remained stable, with the processing fee in Nanchang increasing by 50 yuan/ton. The processing fee of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, the processing fee of 6/8 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fee of low - carbon aluminum rods increased by 36 yuan/ton. The support logic of overseas raw material costs was gradually weakening. After the domestic production resumption increment was released, combined with the upcoming large - scale arrival of imported alumina, the inventory was under pressure. The high premium in the futures market accelerated the registration of warehouse receipts, and alumina lost its upward momentum and turned weak. Multiple oil fields in the Middle East were attacked, and energy pressure entered the long - term logic, but the aluminum plant shutdown rhythm did not cause a new supply shock. The market's core contradiction shifted from the high premium of overseas geopolitics to the weak reality of domestic inventory accumulation and slow demand start, as well as the logic of the upward repair of the copper - aluminum ratio. If there was no unexpected disturbance in the geopolitical situation, the aluminum price would be mainly adjusted weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the approaching time of the inventory - depletion inflection point, and new geopolitical variables should be vigilant [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 3.64% to $17,915/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.65% to 140,330 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory increased by 96 tons to 282,888 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 374 tons to 58,006 tons. In terms of the premium, the LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at a discount of 150 yuan/ton. Under the dual effects of tight nickel ore supply and rising freight rates, the nickel ore price continued to strengthen. At the same time, both the weekly nickel iron quotation and transaction price increased, while the first - grade nickel showed great pressure in the weekly social inventory. On the demand side, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the 89 major warehouses of the national mainstream stainless - steel market was 1.1274 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32%. There were disturbances on the MHP supply side, but the auxiliary material cost increased, and the transaction coefficient rose. In addition, the output of ternary materials in March was expected to increase by 19% month - on - month to 84,360 tons. Under the tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, there were again disturbances on the supply side. Given the continuous strengthening of the cost side, there might still be short - term long - trading opportunities with reference to the cost line, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitics and market sentiment. At the same time, there was an expectation of supplementary quotas in July, and the large inventory pressure of first - grade nickel would also put pressure on the nickel price [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight price trend, macro - economic data, geopolitical situation, inventory changes, demand situation, and future price trend and strategy suggestions [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight price trend, spot market situation, raw material cost, inventory pressure, and future price trend and attention points [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight price trend, inventory changes, cost situation, demand situation, and future price trend and trading suggestions [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Price changes of flat - copper, waste copper, downstream products, and smelting processing fees; inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventory; and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss [4]. - Lead: Price changes of lead products, lead - concentrate prices and processing fees, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and import profit and loss [4]. - Aluminum: Price changes of aluminum products, raw material prices, downstream processing fees, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventory, and import profit and loss [5]. - Nickel: Price changes of nickel products, nickel - ore and nickel - iron prices, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventory, and import profit and loss [5]. - Zinc: Price changes of zinc products, TC, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventory, and import profit and loss [7]. - Tin: Price changes of tin products, tin - concentrate prices, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and import profit and loss [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Spot Premium: Charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][12][13]. - 3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. - 3.3.3 LME Inventory: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [22][23][24][25][26][27]. - 3.3.4 SHFE Inventory: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - 3.3.5 Social Inventory: Charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [34][35][36][37][39]. - 3.3.6 Smelting Profit: Charts of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: Current position, professional titles, work experience, media interviews, and honors [47]. - Wang Heng: Current position, educational background, research direction, honors, work content, and media interviews [47]. - Zhu Xi: Current position, educational background, research direction, honors, work content, and media interviews [48].