盘面跟随原油端回落，地缘不确定性仍存

Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 3.7% at 4,476 yuan/ton overnight, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 4.66% at 5,118 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - After Trump's remarks on postponing the attack on Iran, the market's expectation of the easing of the Middle East situation increased, and international oil prices fell from high levels. FU and LU followed the decline on the overnight session. However, the war situation is still unclear, the Strait of Hormuz is not navigable, and the damage scope and degree of Middle East energy infrastructure are still accumulating, and the risks have not really subsided [2] - For the fuel oil market, high-sulfur fuel oil has a relatively high supply share from the Middle East and a large risk exposure to geopolitical conflicts. In addition to the logistics interruption in the strait, several refineries in the Middle East have been shut down due to attacks recently. As of now, the maintenance volume of Middle East refineries exceeds 2.6 million barrels per day, and even if the strait resumes navigation in the short term, the local refined oil supply may not recover quickly [2] - In the case of low-sulfur fuel oil, although the direct export share from the Middle East is not high, refineries in the Asia-Pacific region have reduced their production due to insufficient raw materials, leading to a passive decline in output. In addition, the high premium in the diesel market has a boosting effect on the low-sulfur fuel oil market. Currently, the diesel crack spread remains strong, and the high premium over low-sulfur fuel oil may attract more components, thereby indirectly tightening the supply of low-sulfur oil [2] Group 3: Strategy - For high-sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to wait and see due to short-term sharp fluctuations [3] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, it is also recommended to wait and see due to short-term sharp fluctuations [3] - There are no strategies for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options [3]