现货贴水持续修复

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. On the cost side, the TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply-side increase expectation remains unchanged. With the further improvement of smelter raw material reserves, the number of available days of ore has not declined despite the continuous increase in smelting output. It is expected that the TC will continue to rise. The pressure on the supply side continues to be prominent. Even if there is a strong performance during the peak consumption season, the expectation of inventory accumulation in China remains unchanged, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Even when other non-ferrous metals are strengthening, zinc prices are expected to show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be watched [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$20.79 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 190 yuan/ton to 22,860 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 190 yuan/ton to 22,930 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 180 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On March 24, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,960 yuan/ton and closed at 22,975 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 133,880 lots, and the open interest was 101,592 lots. The highest intraday price reached 23,150 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,905 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of March 24, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 255,200 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 117,100 tons, a decrease of 75 tons from the previous trading day [3]