下游畏跌情绪有所缓和，铅价震荡小幅回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak overseas and stable domestic conditions, with a supply - demand game. Overseas lead prices are dragged down by geopolitical factors, while domestic lead prices decline less. The expanding losses of secondary lead and the reduction of primary lead factory inventories provide phased support. There is a co - existence of high - pressure social inventories and downstream low - price restocking, and the opening of the import window brings an incremental expectation. Terminal demand is structurally differentiated, with strong data center orders but the civilian battery market entering the off - season. Next week, lead prices may decline first and then rise, and downstream enterprises will maintain low - price rigid demand procurement. Investors should pay attention to the pace of social inventory reduction and the actual arrival of imported lead and operate cautiously. The expected weekly operating range of lead prices is between 16,200 yuan/ton and 16,800 yuan/ton, and enterprises can conduct corresponding buy and sell hedging operations based on this range [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 24, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - 39.61 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,350 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,800 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [1] Futures - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,495 yuan/ton and closed at 16,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 49,289 lots, a decrease of 14,155 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 84,978 lots, a decrease of 4,229 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,515 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,385 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,420 yuan/ton and closed at 16,470 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 24, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 24, the LME lead inventory was 283,350 tons, a decrease of 25 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral. For options, it is recommended to sell call options. The expected weekly operating range of lead prices is between 16,200 yuan/ton and 16,800 yuan/ton, and enterprises can conduct corresponding buy and sell hedging operations based on this range [3]