库存拐点出现

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bullish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The absolute price of electrolytic aluminum has stabilized at a relatively low level, leading to active spot purchases by downstream users with rigid demand. The spot discount has been continuously repaired, and the inflection point of the social inventory of aluminum ingots may have appeared, with the inventory of aluminum rods continuing to decline. Overseas supply has seen substantial production cuts, and although Middle Eastern aluminum may be diverted for export, overseas inventory is still declining. In the long term, the fundamentals of supply and demand remain optimistic. Although there are concerns about the impact of short - term transportation disruptions in the Middle East on the domestic export market and the potential for stagflation caused by oil prices, it is too early to worry about the US entering an interest - rate hike cycle. Downstream processing plants with hedging needs can buy at low prices for hedging, and speculators can participate after the risk sentiment stabilizes [6] - A Sichuan electrolytic aluminum plant purchased 15,000 tons of Shandong alumina at an ex - factory price of 2,800 yuan/ton. Guinea will clarify its bauxite export restriction policy in early April. Although it is not clear whether this will cause a shortage of bauxite supply, the policy is clearly aimed at price control, and cost support has significantly increased. The supply and demand of alumina remain in surplus, and with the import window open, the domestic supply pressure may further intensify. The futures market's trading of the ore price has led to a continuous premium in the futures price. Spot is converted into warehouse receipts, and the inter - month spread supports the continuous holding of warehouse receipts, so the surplus is not reflected in the spot market. In the short term, the alumina price fluctuates with the crude oil price, and after the price decline, the risk of the futures premium decreases. In the long term, the price center will shift upward due to raw material disturbances [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On March 24, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 23,470 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount was - 140 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 23,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 23,440 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,850 yuan/ton, closed at 23,625 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 23,870 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 23,565 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 348,478 lots, and the open interest was 261,158 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of March 24, 2026, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.337 million tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 404,811 tons, a change of 1,451 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 427,675 tons, with no change from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On March 24, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,730 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,780 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,755 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,790 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,065 yuan/ton, closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, a change of - 61 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 1.98%. The maximum price was 3,067 yuan/ton, and the minimum price was 3,004 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 525,678 lots, and the open interest was 231,479 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 24, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,300 yuan/ton, with a price change of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 53,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 81,500 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,604 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 896 yuan/ton [5]