宏观扰动加剧，碳酸锂盘面大涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is driven by sentiment, with prices fluctuating widely due to strong energy storage demand, a tight - balance trend, frequent macro disturbances, a correction in the energy - chemical sector, and a rebound in the non - ferrous sector. The current inventory is at a low level, and short - term interval operations are recommended, with the option to go long on dips [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 24, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 151,980 yuan/ton and closed at 152,940 yuan/ton, with a 6.11% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 231,071 lots, and the open interest was 260,696 lots (269,477 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 3,780 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 32,078 lots, a change of - 1,459 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 141,000 - 154,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 - 151,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,080 US dollars/ton, a change of 40 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The overall domestic supply of lithium salts is stable as most lithium salt plants have resumed production. However, export policy disturbances in Zimbabwe may restrict subsequent supply increments. The weekly total production of lithium carbonate is 24,186 tons, including 14,914 tons from spodumene, 3,197 tons from mica, 3,565 tons from salt lakes, and 3,565 tons from recycling [1] Inventory - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 98,873 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 86 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,608 tons, a month - on - month increase of 316 tons; the downstream inventory is 46,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 458 tons; other inventories are 36,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 860 tons. The inventory in the downstream and smelters has increased, while other inventories have decreased. The de - stocking pattern continues this week, but the de - stocking pace has slowed down [2] Profit - The price of lithium concentrate fluctuates with the lithium carbonate futures price. Lithium salt plants mostly purchase concentrate in bulk, with strong production enthusiasm. Lithium ore traders maintain a firm price for the ore, and the cost support line fluctuates with the ore price. Production enterprises with their own mines and salt lakes still have a large profit margin, and the profit of enterprises purchasing ore externally is maintained. The profit margin in the processing link is squeezed. Although the current processing fee has increased slightly compared to before the Spring Festival, the overall profit is still low [2] Strategy - Short - term: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, no strategies are provided [3][4][5]