有色金属行业双周报：地缘冲突持续扰动，有色金属全面下跌

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach to seeking investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index has decreased by 15.08% over the past two weeks, ranking last among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index, indicating significant market concerns regarding supply and demand dynamics [2][12]. - Precious metals have experienced a notable decline, with COMEX gold prices falling by 13.30% and COMEX silver prices dropping by 19.94% in the same period, reflecting pressures from inflation concerns and a strong dollar [20]. - The tungsten market shows strong upward momentum, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 11.44% over the past two weeks, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic policy constraints [36]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index fell by 15.08% from March 9 to March 20, 2026, with all sub-sectors, including small metals (-18.50%), precious metals (-12.52%), and industrial metals (-16.07%), showing declines [2][12]. Precious Metals - As of March 20, COMEX gold closed at $4,492.00 per ounce, down 13.30% over two weeks, while COMEX silver closed at $67.81 per ounce, down 19.94% [20]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and regulatory tightening on market liquidity, which has pressured precious metal prices [20]. Industrial Metals - LME copper prices were $12,021.50 per ton, down 6.14% over two weeks, while domestic copper prices averaged 95,470 yuan per ton, down 5.60% [30]. - The report anticipates a weak balance in copper prices due to macroeconomic pressures and cost support [30]. Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose to 1,023,000 yuan per ton, up 11.44% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 123.85% [36]. - The report notes that the tungsten market is influenced by global supply chain disruptions and domestic production constraints [36]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index was 255.31, down 13.58% over two weeks, but up 17.64% year-to-date [45]. - The report indicates that demand from downstream sectors is slowing, impacting the rare earth market [45]. Energy Metals - The average price of electrolytic cobalt was 431,000 yuan per ton, down 0.12% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices averaged 149,000 yuan per ton, down 4.03% [54]. - The report highlights the cautious market sentiment regarding the electric vehicle sector and supply chain dynamics [54].