黑色商品日报-20260325

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives short - term views for different black commodities: steel (including rebar) - oscillating; iron ore - high - level oscillation; coking coal - oscillating operation; coke - oscillating operation; manganese silicon - oscillating; ferrosilicon - oscillating [1][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the cost is pushed up by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the strengthening of coking coal price, but the weak demand, especially from the real - estate sector, leads to high inventory and suppresses the price. The short - term rebar futures is expected to oscillate narrowly [1]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia is increasing while that from Brazil is slightly decreasing. After the lifting of environmental restrictions, steel mills are resuming production. With geopolitical factors raising cost expectations, the short - term iron ore futures is expected to continue high - level oscillation [1]. - For coking coal, the production of origin mines is stable, the upstream shipment is improving, and the terminal demand is rising. However, due to complex macro disturbances, the short - term coking coal futures is expected to oscillate [1]. - For coke, the strong coking coal price supports the coke price, and steel mills' increasing demand leads to a rise in coke price expectations. But considering complex macro factors, the short - term coke futures is expected to oscillate [1]. - For manganese silicon, the cost is the main support, with rising port manganese ore prices. There are "production - cut" rumors, and the demand and supply have a price gap. The short - term manganese silicon futures is expected to oscillate firmly [1]. - For ferrosilicon, the production profit is recovering, and the production is increasing. The demand from steel mills is rising, but the narrowing basis affects sales willingness. The short - term ferrosilicon futures is expected to oscillate [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures 2605 closed at 3145 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (0.29%) with a decrease of 87,900 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable, and the national building materials trading volume was 93,500 tons. Cost increased, but demand was weak, and inventory was high [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures i2605 closed at 824 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.6%) with an increase of 4,000 lots in positions. The 47 - port arrival volume was 23.831 million tons, up 661,000 tons. Supply and demand factors were mixed [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures 2605 closed at 1249.5 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (3.1%) with a decrease of 45,887 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. Production was stable, and demand was rising [1]. - Coke: The coke futures 2605 closed at 1798 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton (2.65%) with a decrease of 2,320 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable. The cost was rising, and demand from steel mills was increasing [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures closed at 6556 yuan/ton, down 0.43% with an increase of 1,558 lots in positions. The price of port manganese ore increased. The weekly production decreased by 0.74% to 196,200 tons [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures closed at 6100 yuan/ton, up 0.2% with a decrease of 3,897 lots in positions. The production profit was recovering, and the weekly production increased by 7.19% to 104,400 tons. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1,770 tons to 59,400 tons [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: The report provides the latest contract spreads (such as 5 - 10, 10 - 1) and basis data for various commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, along with their环比 changes [4]. - Profits and Spreads: It also shows the latest profit data (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) and their环比 changes [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9][13]. - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various commodities over different contract periods from 2021 to 2026 [16][17][20][22]. - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts presenting the spreads of different inter - period contracts (e.g., 05 - 10, 10 - 01) for various commodities from 2021 to 2026 [25][26][29][30][32][34][36]. - 3.4 Cross - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts show cross - commodity spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., from 2021 to 2026 [37][38][39][40]. - 3.5 Rebar Profits: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2021 to 2026 [42][43][45]. 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [47]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience in the field of power coal [47]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [47]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [48].