大连商品交易所农产品日报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating [1] - Soybean Meal: Rising [1] - Oils: Rising [1] - Eggs: Oscillating [1] - Pigs: Oscillating Weakly [2] 2. Core Views - Corn: The futures price fluctuates with capital. Northeast corn prices are stable, while North China prices are slightly weak. The overall shipping enthusiasm of traders has increased, and the downstream inventory has been replenished. The futures market boosts the spot market, and the supply in the sales area is still tight. The futures price of the main 2605 contract first rises and then falls, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell due to technical selling. Brazilian soybean exports in March are expected to be 1587 million tons. The domestic spot price has slightly declined, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The market follows the change of import costs, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil fell due to the weak trend of competing oils. Crude oil prices limit the decline of palm oil. Indian refineries are reducing purchases. Domestic oils have collectively declined. The inventory of three major vegetable oils has slightly decreased, and demand is weak. Pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation and commodity sentiment, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures have corrected. The spot price is stable with a few increases. The supply is sufficient, and the futures are expected to oscillate. The approaching Tomb - sweeping Festival and increased feed costs support the price, and the lower limit of the oscillation range has risen. Pay attention to supply data and the prices of surrounding commodities [1]. - Pigs: The near - term pig futures stopped falling, and the far - term rose more than the near - term. The spot price continued to decline. The supply is still abundant, and the demand has no obvious improvement. After the previous decline, it has stopped falling in the short term but is likely to remain weak. Pay attention to the impact of feed costs and surrounding commodity prices [2] 3. Market Information - Military actions against Iran will last at least three more weeks, and there are still thousands of targets to be attacked [2] - The Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers [2] - At the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2] - In 2026, China will strengthen the monitoring and supervision of the linkage between domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets [3] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China increased by 69.66 million tons, the daily port clearance volume increased by 6.82 million tons, and the number of ships in port decreased by 2 [3] - The rebound of iron ore prices at the end of February was mainly due to sentiment and technical repair, lacking fundamental support [3] - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license for countries to buy Russian oil and oil products [3] - China will organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve [3] - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the prices of energy and fertilizers soared, and the urea futures price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by more than 20% [3] - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, with a daily export volume of no more than 300,000 barrels, while the Kurdish region refuses to resume exports [4] - Bahrain Aluminium has started phased production cuts due to the stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz [4] - As of March 12, the methanol inventory at East China ports decreased by 7.2 million tons compared with March 5 [4] 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The report provides contract spread charts for corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, soybean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, eggs 5 - 9, and pigs 5 - 9 [6][7][8][11] 4.2 Contract Basis - The report provides contract basis charts for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][15][17][23] 5. Research Team Members - Wang Na, Director of Agricultural Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [25] - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won many awards [25] - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, has participated in many important projects and is often interviewed by the media [25]