工业硅、多晶硅日报-20260325

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On March 24, industrial silicon fluctuated with a slight upward trend, while polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The industrial silicon market is supported by cost, and the probability of a sharp decline is low. The polysilicon market is lackluster, and the spot end continues to offer discounts. Without clear policy support, the market is expected to operate at the bottom. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait for signals of policy - demand resonance [2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon's主力2605 contract closed at 8605 yuan/ton on March 24, with an intraday increase of 0.17%, and the position decreased by 9687 lots to 221,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon remained stable at 9155 yuan/ton, and the lowest delivery price rose to 8800 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 195 yuan/ton. The north - south production areas of industrial silicon are slowly resuming production, and the cost support from petroleum coke and electricity prices still exists, but the pricing center has deviated due to market pessimism. With the moderate release of supply and cost support, industrial silicon is expected to remain stable with minor adjustments and the probability of a sharp decline is low [2] - Polysilicon's主力2605 contract closed at 35730 yuan/ton on March 24, with an intraday decrease of 3.17%, and the position increased by 731 lots to 32746 lots. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon dropped to 42500 yuan/ton, and the lowest delivery price also dropped to 42500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 6770 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market is lackluster, and the spot end is difficult to reverse the situation of continuous discount sales. The current futures price can still cover the cash cost of large manufacturers. As large manufacturers are approaching resumption of production and supply is changing from contraction to expansion, the supply - demand imbalance will intensify. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, the role of warehouse receipts in relieving inventory still exists. Without clear policy support, the market is difficult to have a trend - based market and will mainly operate at the bottom [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8575 yuan/ton on March 23 to 8605 yuan/ton on March 24, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained mostly unchanged. The current lowest delivery price was 8800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 225 yuan/ton to 195 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21648, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 5700 tons to 109880 tons. The inventory in ports and factories also changed, with the total social inventory increasing by 15300 tons to 452650 tons [4] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 35435 yuan/ton on March 23 to 35730 yuan/ton on March 24, an increase of 295 yuan/ton. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon decreased, with the current lowest delivery price dropping from 43250 yuan/ton to 42500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreasing from 7815 yuan/ton to 6770 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 9810, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1.0 million tons to 32.07 million tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 35.70 million tons, with the total social inventory decreasing by 0.3 million tons to 35.7 million tons [4] - Organic Silicon: The DMC price in the East China market remained unchanged at 14300 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained unchanged at 15100 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained unchanged at 14800 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1000 yuan/ton to 15800 yuan/ton [4] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][7][10][11] - 3.2 Downstream Product Prices: The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][17][19] - 3.3 Inventory: The charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, weekly industry inventories and inventory changes of industrial silicon, weekly inventories of polysilicon, and weekly inventory of DMC [22][23][26] - 3.4 Cost and Profit: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, processing industry profit of polysilicon, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of aluminum alloy [29][31][33]