资讯早间报-20260325

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of various commodities, important macro - economic and geopolitical news, financial market performance, and upcoming economic data and events. It reflects the complex and dynamic nature of the global economic and financial situation, with geopolitical factors such as the Iran - related conflict having a significant impact on the markets. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.3% to $88.39 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.02% to $95.94 per barrel [4][46]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.53% to $4474.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.01% to $71.44 per ounce [5][46]. - Most London base metals fell. LME aluminum rose 1.45% to $3245.5 per ton, while LME lead, tin, nickel, copper, and zinc declined to varying degrees [5][46]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on March 25, 2026 [8]. - Iran will not stop the war until it gets all compensation, all economic sanctions are lifted, and it gets international legal guarantees that the US will not interfere in its affairs [8]. - The US and Israel attacked two energy infrastructure facilities in Iran [8]. - The US proposed a 15 - item conflict - ending plan to Iran, and is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [9]. - US President Trump said Iran "started rational communication" and agreed "never to have nuclear weapons" [10]. - Trump said Iran gave a "very big gift" related to oil and gas and the Strait of Hormuz [12]. - The US and regional mediators are discussing the possibility of high - level peace talks with Iran, pending Iran's response [13][14]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Japan will start releasing its national oil reserves from March 26, and also plans to release the "producer - joint reserves" in March [16]. - The EU has not announced a new schedule for the plan to completely phase out Russian oil, and removed April 15 from the latest schedule [16]. Metal Futures - The Turkish central bank is discussing a "gold - for - foreign exchange" swap transaction through the London market, considering using its $135 billion gold reserves to support the lira [18]. - In February 2026, the installed capacity of new - energy vehicle power batteries was 27.3GWh, a year - on - year decrease of 19.2%. The cumulative year - on - year increase from January to February was 37.4%. The average power per new - energy vehicle from January to February was 62.0kWh, a year - on - year increase of 29.2% [18]. - India extended the tariff quota authorization for gold imports under the India - UAE trade agreement until June 30, 2026 [20]. - In January 2026, the global lead market supply surplus narrowed to 9700 tons, and the global zinc market changed from a shortage of 75100 tons in December 2025 to a surplus of 9200 tons [20]. Black - Series Futures - In February 2026, global crude steel production was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. From January to February, it was 298.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. China's steel production in February was 76.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [22]. Agricultural Product Futures - In February 2026, the slaughter volume of designated pig - slaughtering enterprises was 31.77 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 27.9% but a year - on - year increase of 40.7%. The cumulative slaughter volume from January to February was 75.81 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 21.9% [24]. - Starting from March 25, 2026, the minimum opening order volume for the apple futures 2605 contract is adjusted to 2 lots [25]. - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture is actively solving soybean export quarantine issues. The market's concern about imported soybean supply has subsided. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to drop to about 550,000 tons at the end of the month, a year - on - year decrease of about 100,000 tons [25]. - The estimated palm oil export volume of Malaysia from March 1 - 20, 2026 was 889,128 tons, a 61.02% increase compared to the same period last month [27]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares rebounded strongly, with over 5100 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% to 3881.28 points, and the market turnover was 2.1 trillion yuan. Military stocks soared, while the oil and gas sector declined [29]. - Hong Kong stocks rebounded significantly. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.79% to 25063.71 points. Southbound funds net - sold nearly HK$27.4 billion [29]. - As of the end of February, the scale of private equity funds reached 22.6 trillion yuan, a new high. The number of private equity fund managers decreased [29]. - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for Chinese stocks (A - shares and Hong Kong stocks) and believes that the Sharpe ratio from A - shares is higher in the short term [30]. - As of March 24, 224 companies have announced annual dividend plans, with a total cash dividend of 171.068 billion yuan. 27 companies have a dividend scale of over 1 billion yuan [32]. - Xiaomi Group's Q4 2025 revenue reached a record high, and its automotive business achieved annual profitability for the first time. The company plans to invest over 200 billion yuan in R & D in the next five years [32]. Industry - The National Data Bureau will promote the high - quality development of the digital economy in multiple aspects this year [33]. - The National Development and Reform Commission approved two new railway project proposals with a total investment of 68.1 billion yuan and 44.8 billion yuan respectively [34]. - State Grid will start the construction of pumped - storage power plants with a capacity of over 30 million kilowatts during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [34]. - As of March 22, Shanghai's second - hand housing transactions reached 21,443 units, and it is likely that the transaction volume in March will exceed 30,000 units [34]. - Chengdu introduced policies to boost housing consumption, including increasing the housing provident fund loan limit [34]. - The compilation of China's first "Embodied Intelligent Engineering Robot Industry Standard" has started [36]. - A new rare - earth oxide resource with an additional reserve of 9.6656 million tons was discovered in Sichuan [36]. Overseas - US President Trump claimed victory in the action against Iran, and his approval rating dropped to 36% [37]. - The US March S&P Global Composite PMI dropped to 51.4, with manufacturing and service sectors showing different trends [37]. - The eurozone March S&P Global Composite PMI dropped to 50.5, with the service sector PMI falling significantly [37]. - European Central Bank officials said they need to be vigilant against inflation due to the Iran war [38]. - Japan's February core CPI rose 1.6% year - on - year, the smallest increase since March 2022 [40]. - NASA will cancel the plan to deploy a space station in lunar orbit and build a $20 billion base on the lunar surface in the next seven years [40]. - The EU and Australia reached a comprehensive trade agreement, canceling most tariffs [41]. International Stock Markets - US stocks fell across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.18%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.84% [42]. - European stocks closed mixed. The German DAX Index fell 0.07%, the French CAC40 Index rose 0.23%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 0.72% [42]. - Most Asia - Pacific stocks rose. The Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.43%, the South Korean Composite Index rose 2.74%, and the Indian SENSEX30 Index rose 1.89% [43]. - Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is formulating a plan to potentially acquire Jefferies Financial Group [45]. Commodities - Oil prices rose slightly, but the increase in US API crude oil inventory put pressure on prices [46]. - Precious metal futures rose due to geopolitical uncertainty and other factors [46]. - Most London base metals fell [46]. - Iran started charging tolls for some merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the number of passing ships decreased significantly [47]. - The EU postponed the proposal to permanently ban the import of Russian oil [47]. Bonds - The bond market was generally strong. The yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond "25 Super - long Special Treasury Bond 06" declined, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose [49]. - The foreign official accounts' US Treasury bond holdings in the New York Fed dropped by $75 billion in the past four weeks [49]. - Moody's downgraded the debt rating of a private credit fund to "junk - grade" [49]. - US Treasury bond yields rose across the board [49]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Tuesday, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [50]. - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non - US currencies fell [50]. - The Turkish central bank is discussing a gold - for - foreign exchange swap to support the lira, and the lira has depreciated against the US dollar this year [52]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data such as Australia's February CPI, UK's February CPI, and Germany's March IFO Business Climate Index will be released [54]. - There are important events such as the release of the Japanese central bank's January monetary policy meeting minutes, speeches by central bank officials, and multiple conferences and exhibitions [56].