瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation trading in the bond market is nearing its end. In the short term, the market logic may shift to changes in the capital side and risk appetite. The current liquidity remains abundant, the capital price stays low, short - term interest rates are relatively stable, and long - term interest rates have opportunities for phased repair. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the high uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the intensified intraday fluctuations of oil prices, and the possibility of continuous adjustment in the future, and pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: T, TF, and TL had flat or slightly rising closing prices, with TS rising 0.02%. All futures contracts saw a decrease in trading volume. For example, T's trading volume decreased by 23,472 to 54,586, TF's by 11,464 to 55,274, TS's by 12,146 to 32,899, and TL's by 15,116 to 69,725 [2] - Futures Spreads: Some spreads increased, such as TL2606 - 2609 (up 0.02 to 0.30), T06 - TL06 (up 0.05 to - 3.03), etc., while others decreased, like T2606 - 2609 (down 0.01 to 0.03), TF2606 - 2609 (down 0.02 to 0.20) [2] - Futures Positions: T's main contract position increased by 1,172 to 281,927, with long and short positions of the top 20 increasing. TF, TS, and TL's main contract positions decreased, with different changes in long and short positions of the top 20 [2] 3.2 Bond Market - CTD Bonds: Some CTD bonds' net prices increased, such as 230004.IB (up 0.0207 to 108.2429), 250025.IB (up 0.0127 to 99.0955), etc., while others decreased, like 250014.IB (down 0.0001 to 100.1536), 240020.IB (down 0.0112 to 100.8844) [2] - Active Bonds: Yields of 1 - year and 3 - year active bonds increased by 0.5bp and 0.25bp respectively, while 7 - year and 10 - year yields decreased by 0.2bp and 0.45bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: Some short - term interest rates increased, such as silver - pledged overnight (up 6.41bp to 1.3725), Shibor overnight (up 0.1bp to 1.3190), etc., while others decreased, like silver - pledged 14 - day (down 3.08bp to 1.4818), Shibor 14 - day (down 0.08bp to 1.5112) [2] - LPR Rates: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Public Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 785 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 205 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank governor met with the CEO of DBS Group, and DBS will become the second RMB clearing bank in Singapore [2] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized promoting the relocation of central enterprises to Xiongan New Area and enhancing its industrial development [3] - The US proposed a 15 - condition peace plan to Iran and is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [4] 3.6 Market Situation - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bonds were mixed, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields changing by - 0.1bp and 0.3bp respectively. Treasury futures fluctuated narrowly, with TS and TL rising 0.02% and 0.01% respectively, and TF and T closing flat. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.44%, and the central bank increased the MLF renewal by 50 billion yuan this month [5] 3.7 Focus - On March 26 - 27, G7 finance ministers will hold a meeting. On March 26 at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week of March 21 will be released [5]