瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined across the board, with the main contract EC2604 dropping 6.04% and the far - month contracts falling between 2 - 8%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8%. The US proposed an agreement to end the war with 15 points to Iran, improving geopolitical expectations and causing wide - range fluctuations in the freight market. The spot price was affected by the high oil price. The euro - area unemployment rate in January dropped to a record low of 6.1%, and inflation accelerated unexpectedly, with the February CPI rising 1.9% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The ECB maintained interest rates as expected, but the expectation of tighter policies due to imported inflation concerns increased, and the market fully priced in the ECB's resumption of interest rate hikes in July. Overall, although the geopolitical situation has deteriorated, the detour expectation has gradually materialized. Coupled with the unchanged fundamentals of the shipping industry and limited upward space in March and April, it's difficult for shipping companies' price increase announcements to be implemented. The main logic is the support from news. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track airline quotes and cargo volume data, as well as the persistence of the US - Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1803.000, down 116.0; EC secondary main contract closing price: 2364.1, down 177.10 - EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 561.10, down 20.80; EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 551.20, down 39.30 - EC contract basis: - 109.74, up 95.90 - EC main contract open interest: 12060, down 3207 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1693.26, up 136.77; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1024.11, down 85.00 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1706.95, down 3.40; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1120.61, up 48.45; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1463.75, up 18.88 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1989.00, up 48.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1839.00, up 49.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): unchanged; average charter price (Capesize ship): 23468.00, down 764.00 [1] Industry News - The US government proposed a 15 - condition plan to end the conflict with Iran through Pakistan, including requirements such as dismantling existing nuclear capabilities, promising not to develop nuclear weapons, and allowing full verification by the IAEA - US President Trump said the US was communicating with the "right people", Iran "wanted to reach an agreement", and the US - Iran negotiation "might be quite close to reaching an agreement" - European Central Bank Governing Council members said the ECB must be "highly flexible and vigilant" to control prices due to the approaching stagflation risk caused by the Iran war, and was ready to deal with inflation if energy price increases spread to other sectors [1] Key Points to Watch - Germany's April Gfk consumer confidence index at 15:00 on March 26 - US initial jobless claims (in 10,000 people) for the week ending March 21 at 20:30 on March 26 [1]