天然橡胶日报：高位震荡-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The raw material prices are firm during the low - production season, and as the rubber - tapping season begins, supply is expected to increase. Although demand is recovering well, high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory put pressure on prices [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On March 25, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,430 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +1.42%. The price center of the natural rubber market rose. The intended transaction price of the mainstream 24 - year SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,300 - 16,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 3.2 Supply - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import was 1.1065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons, or 1.36%. The import volume from January to February 2026 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023, ranking second in the same period in history. The international market demand is average, and domestic downstream pre - holiday inventory and arbitrage positions support the high import base. Natural rubber still mainly flows to the Chinese market. Starting from mid - March in the Yunnan production area, the world will enter a new round of rubber - tapping season. With raw material prices at a high level, the enthusiasm for rubber - tapping is stimulated, and the expectation of an increase in new rubber supply in the future is rising [2] 3.3 Demand - On March 20, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tires in China was 78.25%, higher than the average in the same period over the years. The operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.72%, also higher than the average in the same period over the years. The operating rate of tire production lines has recovered, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. Follow - up purchase orders may be received. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. In the context of continuously high raw material costs, the profit pressure of upstream and downstream enterprises is prominent, especially the losses in the downstream are intensifying. Some enterprises have gradually turned to purchasing lower - priced natural rubber to replace synthetic rubber, which provides certain support for the short - term demand for natural rubber [3] 3.4 Inventory - In the week of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 141,300 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons or 1.29% from the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in general trade warehouses in the Qingdao area was 561,600 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons or 1.63% from the previous period [5]