芳烃日报：美伊和谈疑云，短暂回调-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to new developments in the Middle - East situation and news of peace talks, crude oil prices have dropped. Aromatics are affected by the situation in the short - term with intensified fluctuations. Considering the damaged facilities and production capacity from the war and the incomplete passage of the Strait of Hormuz, the supply will take time to return to the pre - war state. In the short - term, after a correction, the market should still be treated as bullish. It is necessary to closely monitor the US - Iran situation and crude oil trends, as the short - term risks are high [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The 600,000 - ton Gulei plant is under maintenance, and the load of some plants is adjusted. Styrene production decreased by 3.12% to 360,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.32% to 71.79% [1] - Demand side: The downstream operating rates of styrene vary. The EPS operating rate decreased by 0.98% to 57.78%, the PS operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.7%, the ABS operating rate decreased by 2.1% to 67.4%, the UPR operating rate increased by 3% to 38%, and the butadiene - styrene rubber operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 75.65% [1] - Inventory: Styrene factory inventory decreased by 7.70% to 191,900 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 10.88% to 156,500 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 3.77% to 51,000 tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz in March dropped by more than 90%. A Thai oil tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz safely. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran ordered an unauthorized vessel to return. Iran stated that "non - hostile vessels" can pass through the strait after coordinating with Iran. British media reported that the British Royal Navy will lead a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [2] - A person from the securities department of China Merchants Energy Shipping revealed that the company currently has no ships stranded in the Persian Gulf and has no plans to pass through the risk area after the war, instead choosing other shipping routes. The current tanker freight rate has increased by more than 50% compared to before the war [2] - The US plans to cease fire for one month, and a plan to end the conflict with Iran by 15:00 was exposed [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - With new news in the Middle - East situation and the news of peace talks, crude oil prices have dropped. Given the changes in key events, crude oil may experience sharp fluctuations. Aromatics are affected by the situation in the short - term with intensified fluctuations. Considering the damaged facilities and production capacity from the war and the incomplete passage of the Strait of Hormuz, in the short - term, after a correction, the market should still be treated as bullish. It is necessary to closely monitor the US - Iran situation and crude oil trends, as the short - term risks are high [3][4]