软商品日报：震荡为主-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating trend, with limited short - term fundamental drivers, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations and downstream order conditions. The potential positive factor of Trump's postponed visit to China still provides some support for cotton prices [1]. - The sugar market is expected to continue an oscillating upward trend. Although the global sugar market is still loose, the narrowing import profit indicates that the downside space for sugar prices is gradually shrinking [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Due to abnormal weather and pest infestations, India's cotton production has been fluctuating. In the 2025/26 season, its cotton planting area decreased by nearly one - fifth from 13.4 million hectares in the 2019/20 season to 11.2 million hectares, as farmers are shifting to more stable and profitable alternative crops like rice and corn [1]. - In the domestic market, the downstream peak season is evident, with an increase in order numbers and stable spinning mill operating rates, but the immediate spinning profit is not good [1]. Sugar - As of March 20, 2026, the inventory of Guangxi's third - party sugar warehouses was about 2.4 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, reaching the highest level in the past five years. Since March, the third - party inventory inflow increased by 800,000 tons month - on - month, significantly higher than 200,000 tons in the same period last year [1]. - The estimated cost of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,453 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,671 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota compared to the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,197 yuan/ton, while outside the quota it is - 21 yuan/ton [2]. - The rise in the outer - disk raw sugar price has reduced the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar. Although the global sugar market is still loose, the raw sugar is gradually emerging from the trough due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices [2].