玻璃、纯碱日报：日内走势分化-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the rebound of the futures price. The market is expected to continue wide - range volatile fluctuations, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and terminal demand recovery [1]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the unimproved mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs and marginal inventory reduction support the futures price, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and the market may continue to adjust downward in a volatile manner. It is expected to maintain short - term volatility, and attention should be paid to energy price changes, cost increase, and inventory reduction [2]. 3. Summary by Product Glass - The main glass contract opened high and moved low, with intraday weakening. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed a short - term volatility signal. The intraday pressure was around the 10 - day moving average of 1080, and the support was around the previous low of 1030. The trading volume decreased by 203,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 45,905 lots. The intraday high was 1072, the low was 1049, and the closing price was 1057, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.94% from the previous settlement price [1]. - The core contradiction lies in the game between supply contraction expectation and weak real - demand. High inventory is the biggest pressure on the rebound. Last month's real - estate data continued to be sluggish, and the recent downstream demand recovery was also below expectations. The spot market faced high inventory and weak demand. The short - term weakening was affected by the easing of geopolitical negotiation sentiment, and the negotiation progress still had a great impact on the market sentiment [1]. Soda Ash - The main soda ash contract opened high and moved high, with intraday strengthening. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed a short - term volatility signal. The pressure was around the upper Bollinger Band of 1280, and the short - term support was around the 30 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 45,343 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 2,265 lots. The intraday high was 1257, the low was 1220, and the closing price was 1244, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous settlement price [2]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 181.16 million tons, a decrease of 4.22 million tons or 2.28% from last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash was 94.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.63 million tons, and heavy soda ash was 86.48 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons [2]. - The core logic is the unimproved mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs and marginal inventory reduction support the futures price, but the fundamental driving force is weakening due to the expected reduction in float glass production and the impact of the photovoltaic industry. The market may continue to adjust downward in a volatile manner [2].