甲醇日报：美伊和谈疑云，短暂回调-20260325

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Given the new developments in the Middle East situation and the sharp drop in crude oil prices after the peace talk news, methanol is expected to continue to be strong after a short - term correction due to the time needed for supply to return to pre - war levels and the incomplete passage of the Strait of Hormuz. However, short - term risks are high, and it is necessary to closely monitor the US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [4] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of March 19, China's methanol production was 2,074,815 tons, an increase of 53,680 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 92.87%, a 2.65% increase from the previous week. There were new maintenance and production - reduction devices this period, and some devices resumed production. The overall recovery volume was more than the loss volume, resulting in an increase in production and capacity utilization [1] - China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons from the previous period, a 7.21% decrease; the sample enterprise order backlog was 279,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 5.26% increase [1] - Zhengshang Institute decided to add Anhui Province as a methanol futures delivery area and publicly solicit designated delivery warehouses for methanol futures. The premium and discount for the new delivery area is 150 yuan/ton, to be implemented from the date of the announcement of the new delivery warehouses [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In March, the traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz dropped by more than 90%. An Iranian vessel ordered an unauthorized ship to return, and the UK Royal Navy plans to lead a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [2] - A person from the securities department of China Merchants Energy Shipping revealed that the company has no ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, has no plans to pass through the risk area after the war, and is using other shipping routes. The current tanker freight rate has increased by more than 50% compared to before the war [2] - The US plans to cease fire for one month, and a plan to end the conflict with Iran was exposed [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Not provided