铁矿日报：短期扰动因素较多，基本面压力仍存-20260325

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The supply side remains loose, the demand side sees an increase in hot metal production, and the overall fundamentals are still weak. Under the dual disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic, and the iron ore futures and spot prices will continue the high - level oscillation rhythm [2][5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures adjusted weakly within the day, closing at 806.5 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 379,000 lots, the open interest was 414,000 lots, and the settled funds were 7.351 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 795, and the short - term resistance is around 825 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, dropped 3 to 796 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 3 to 676 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 105.3 (-2.45) US dollars/ton. The swap price fell from the high, and the spot price declined slightly [1] - Basis and spread: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 829.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22.6 yuan/ton, and the basis widened. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore was 29 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts was 20.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period recovered month - on - month. Geopolitical disturbances continued, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated. The new CEO of BHP will take office on July 1, 2026, and its impact on negotiation progress and spot liquidity should be noted [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. After the Two Sessions, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. The hot metal production recovered month - on - month, and there is still room for recovery. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory declined, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: The "15th Five - Year Plan" outline was announced, raising the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries, adding indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. The domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and it has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and CRB index are at seasonal highs, and South Korea's exports in early March increased significantly, indicating that external demand remains resilient [3] - Overseas: The Iranian geopolitical situation continues to affect the financial market, and major asset prices fluctuated significantly today [4] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show a loose supply, an increase in hot metal production on the demand side, and a decline in port inventory with a transfer to downstream. The overall fundamentals are weak. Under the dual disturbances of supply and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic, and the iron ore futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate at a high level [5]