热卷日报：震荡偏弱-20260325

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term view that hot - rolled coils are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger operation [6] Core View - Hot - rolled coils showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend on Wednesday. Influenced by the short - term weakness of raw materials, the lower support is near the 60 - day moving average. From the perspective of the moving average, it is strengthening in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the previous pressure platform. Fundamentally, it is currently in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, high inventory, and cost support. The apparent demand has rebounded significantly recently, and with the arrival of the seasonal peak season, the overall output has shrunk, which supports the price. However, the high inventory limits the upside space to a certain extent. Now it has started to destock, and attention should be paid to the subsequent destocking progress [6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Wednesday was 302,330 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The short - term moving average fell to around the 5 - day moving average of 3313, the medium - term moving average was at 30 - day moving average of 3257, and it was running above the 60 - day moving average of 3273. The position decreased by 21,168 lots [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3300 yuan/ton [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 13 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 300.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.12 million tons. The steel mill's resumption of production was moderate, and the supply contraction was obvious year - on - year, so the supply side put limited pressure on prices [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 310.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.15 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.14 million tons. The resumption of work in the manufacturing industry drove the rebound of apparent demand, but it was still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable in the follow - up [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 376.33 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.98 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.28 million tons. The social inventory was de - stocked for the first time on a weekly basis, but the absolute amount was still much higher than last year. The steel mill inventory was 84.96 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.32 million tons, and the pressure was relieved. The total inventory was 461.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 51.39 million tons. It ended the inventory accumulation and entered the de - stocking stage, but the total inventory was still at a high level. Entering the weekly de - stocking for the first time verified the start of demand, but the absolute amount of social inventory and the inventory - to - sales ratio were still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence of the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and there was no substantial improvement in downstream orders. It still took time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it was difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strengthening of raw materials [6] - Bearish factors: Slow realization of demand, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - disturbances [6]