Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao (00817) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant sales growth and is actively acquiring land, indicating that its performance has reached a bottom [1] - In 2025, the company achieved a sales amount of 113.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, making it the only company among the top 10 to show positive growth [6] - The company’s financing costs have continued to decline, with an average new financing cost of 2.75% in 2025, down 64 basis points from the end of 2024 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2028 are as follows: - 2024: 59,053 million RMB - 2025: 59,371 million RMB - 2026E: 54,525 million RMB - 2027E: 51,099 million RMB - 2028E: 49,190 million RMB - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 701 million RMB - 2025: 592 million RMB - 2026E: 737 million RMB - 2027E: 822 million RMB - 2028E: 998 million RMB - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 1.99% in 2024 to 2.87% in 2028 [5][7] Sales and Land Acquisition - In 2025, the company’s sales area was 4.79 million square meters, a decrease of 17.6% year-on-year, while the average sales price increased by 40.1% to 23,700 RMB per square meter [6] - The land acquisition amount in 2025 was 57.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 73%, with a land acquisition/sales amount ratio of 51% [6] Market Position - The company ranks 8th in the industry, improving its position by 4 places year-on-year, and has a significant unsold inventory valued at approximately 278.6 billion RMB, with 89% located in first and second-tier cities [6]
中国金茂（00817）：销售快增，拿地积极，业绩见底：中国金茂（00817）：