软商品日报-20260325

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, and inventory situations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, and the spot basis remained stable. Downstream spinning mills mainly made bargain purchases with average transactions. The demand in the peak season in March was good, and mills with low inventories had a certain willingness to stock up. The domestic import quota was issued, narrowing the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons higher than the same period last year. The national commercial inventory changed from lower to higher year - on - year compared with the end of February. The peak season in China showed a positive performance, the开机 rate continued to rise, and the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth was well digested. Recently, the sales of pure cotton yarn have slowed down. In the medium term, a bullish strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is maintained [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The market focused on Brazil's production forecast. After the rainy season, there was less rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil, which was unfavorable for sugarcane growth. The sugar - alcohol price ratio dropped significantly, and the sugar - making ratio in the new season was expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. From January to February, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 440,900 tons year - on - year. Both the production and sales progress were slow. The significant decline in sales was mainly due to strong bearish sentiment in the market, leading to less procurement. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress was always slow. For now, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In the northwest producing areas, merchants had high procurement enthusiasm, and the prices of some specifications of goods were relatively strong. In Shandong, there were few transactions, and merchants mainly purchased medium - to - low - grade goods. In Shaanxi and Gansu, merchants mainly looked for high - quality goods, but there were not many remaining high - quality goods. As of March 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 4.1892 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The market's trading logic focused on the demand side. After the Spring Festival, the demand in the northwest producing areas was good, and the prices were relatively strong. However, the apples in Shandong had poor quality but high acquisition prices, which might affect the sales speed. As the market started to trade Shandong goods, and the goods in Shandong had low cost - effectiveness, the price increase was weak, and funds withdrew, leading to a sharp price drop. For now, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - rubber (NR) rose slightly, and the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) rose significantly. The domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased, and the port price of butadiene in the external market rose. In terms of supply, the global natural rubber supply will shift from the low - production period to the increasing - production period, with the Yunnan production area starting trial tapping first, while Hainan in China, Vietnam and other production areas are still in the suspension - tapping period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline, with some plants such as Dushanzi Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical, Zhenhua New Materials, and Shandong Weite continuing to stop for maintenance, and more plants in Zhejiang Petrochemical temporarily stopping or reducing loads. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. In terms of demand, the domestic tire operating rate continued to rise last week. Domestic tire enterprises raised prices passively as costs increased. The finished - product inventory of all - steel tires in Shandong continued to decline, while that of semi - steel tires continued to increase. In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao announced by Longzhong increased to 685,600 tons, with both the bonded - area inventory and general - trade inventory increasing. Last week, the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber in China announced by Zhuochuang continued to decline to 18,800 tons, and the upstream butadiene tower - mouth inventory in China continued to decline to 27,600 tons. Overall, geopolitical risks still exist, cost - driven factors are dominant, domestic demand continues to strengthen, external demand needs improvement, rubber supply decreases, natural rubber inventory increases, synthetic rubber inventory decreases, and market sentiment fluctuates sharply. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage can be grasped [5] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures rose slightly, and there was still some support near the bottom. The fundamentals of pulp were still average. The domestic pulp port inventory was still at a high level, and there was some inventory reduction. As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of mainstream ports of Chinese pulp was 2.297 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease, and the port inventory had decreased for two consecutive weeks. The overseas quotation of pulp was strong, providing some support for long - term costs. The overseas quotation of broad - leaf pulp increased in March. The overall domestic demand for pulp was average, and the procurement of high - priced broad - leaf pulp was cautious. The prices and profits of downstream base paper were not good. In the short term, pulp may maintain a low - level range - bound oscillation [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. In terms of supply, the external market quotation increased significantly, while the domestic spot price was relatively weak, and the future arrival volume may be relatively low. In terms of demand, the downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of national ports was 61,400 cubic meters, a 4.36% year - on - year decrease. As of March 20, the total national port log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, an 18.96% year - on - year decrease. The total national log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Overall, the low inventory provided some support for the price. For now, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [7]