黑色金属日报-20260325

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Roll: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market shows mixed trends with demand and supply changes, and cost support remains strong. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Coke and coking coal prices may be affected by geopolitical conflicts and are prone to rise. Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are influenced by various factors such as supply, demand, and external events [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. Thread demand improved, production increased, and inventory started to decline. Hot roll demand gradually improved, production increased, and inventory decreased from a high level. After the conference, blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and molten iron production increased significantly. Steel mill profits are still poor, restricting the future increase. From January to February data, real estate investment decline narrowed, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth increased, domestic demand improved marginally, and steel exports declined from a high level. With the decline in oil prices, inflation expectations cooled, and the futures market declined, but cost support remains strong. Short - term fluctuations are expected, and attention should be paid to the Iran situation and peak - season demand [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. Global shipments increased compared to the previous period and were stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals increased, and port inventory entered the seasonal destocking stage. The problem of liquidity disturbance of some ore types is expected to be alleviated. Terminal demand continued to pick up in the peak season, and molten iron production increased significantly after the end of production reduction disturbances. There is still room for production resumption, and iron ore demand improved marginally. External geopolitical conflicts show signs of easing, and rising oil prices provide phased cost support. The iron ore futures market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - The coke price declined slightly during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory changed little, and traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly. Overall, carbon element supply is sufficient, downstream molten iron production increased significantly, and steel profits improved slightly. The coke futures market is at a premium. Geopolitical conflicts may cause coking coal to drive up coke prices, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,516 vehicles. Coal mine resumption is good, weekly production continued to increase slightly, and spot auction transactions were good this week, with transaction prices rising. This is mainly due to market concerns about energy rather than abundant supply. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and restocking actions were few. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Overall, carbon element supply is sufficient, downstream molten iron production increased significantly, and steel profits improved slightly. The coking coal futures market is at a large premium to Mongolian coal, and although Mongolian coal customs clearance data remains high, the suppression is weak. Geopolitical conflicts may cause coking coal prices to be prone to rise, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The impact of the typhoon in northeastern Australia on the manganese ore shipments from Groote Eylandt is relatively small and short - term. The spot manganese ore transaction price continued to rise, and manganese ore port inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory accumulation rate at ports will decrease under the influence of the typhoon. On the demand side, molten iron production increased significantly. Silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and silicon manganese inventory increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the drive of the black - series market [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. As the spot price followed the futures price increase, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia in the main production areas turned profitable, and the loss in other areas decreased. On the demand side, molten iron production rebounded significantly. Export demand remained at about 25,000 tons, with little marginal impact, and the monthly export volume is expected to remain at about 35,000 tons in the medium - to - long term. The production of magnesium metal remained at a high level, and secondary demand was relatively stable. Overall, demand still has resilience. Ferrosilicon weekly supply increased slightly, inventory increased overall, and the price may be mainly driven by silicon manganese [8]