超长信用都能控住回撤?

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Although the retracement of ultra - long credit bonds in this round is relatively low compared to the bond market adjustment in the past two years, the current point offers limited gaming space. With potential disturbances from "fixed - income plus" products and the pressure of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, there are still valuation fluctuation risks in the short term [5][46]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bond yields have slightly retraced. This week (March 16 - 20, 2026), the improvement in fundamental data and inflation concerns due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts have suppressed the performance of long - term interest - rate bonds. Although the ultra - long credit bond market shows signs of adjustment, the overall retracement is low, and the yield center of existing ultra - long credit bonds remains stable between 2.2% - 2.5% [2][12][13]. 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long credit bonds has increased. Due to the "rigid" financing needs of issuers and seasonal patterns, the supply of new ultra - long credit bonds this week has risen to 19.9 billion. In terms of issuance rates, the rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds has continued to decline to 2.45%, and the coupon rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds remains around 2.4%. From the perspective of new bond subscriptions, the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds has cooled significantly this week, possibly due to insufficient price protection for new bonds and the temporary weakening of end - of - quarter allocation power [3][22]. 3.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - The performance of the ultra - long end is weaker than that of the medium - short end. This week, the ultra - long end of credit bonds has continued to be under pressure. The full - price indices of ChinaBond AA+ credit bonds with maturities of 7 - 10 years and over 10 years have fallen by 0.07% and 0.04% respectively, which are less resilient than medium - short general credit bonds [4][29]. - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds has remained sluggish. In the past week, the overall trading activity of credit bonds has declined, and the liquidity of ultra - long credit bonds has also weakened. The number of transactions of general credit bonds with maturities over 7 years has dropped to 225. As of March 20, the yields of 7 - 10 - year ultra - long industrial bonds have basically reached the same level as those of 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds, and the relative value of ultra - long credit bonds has significantly weakened [4][30]. - The ultra - long credit bond market has changed from the previous "simultaneous increase in volume and price" to "decrease in volume and stable price". Although the TKN ratio is still not low, the transaction prices of ultra - long credit bonds are highly anchored to the valuation, indicating that buyers lack the willingness to actively go long and are only willing to passively accept at around the valuation [4][36]. - In terms of investor structure, trading desks such as public funds are still reducing their holdings of ultra - long credit bonds. The net buying power of insurance companies for credit bonds with maturities over 7 years is also significantly weaker than last year, and only other product categories have a large - scale takeover of this variety [4][43].