五矿期货农产品早报-20260326

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The US's intention to cease fire and propose a peace - talk plan led to a sharp decline in international oil prices, which is bearish for raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices. The strategy is to shift to a wait - and - see approach [3]. - Cotton: The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices and bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to try to go long on pullbacks. The cooling of the US - Iran situation is beneficial to cotton prices [6][7]. - Protein Meal: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bearish for grain prices. The relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports by customs is also bearish for meal prices. Future price trends depend on soybean import arrival schedules and the progress of the US - Iran incident. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see [10]. - Oils and Fats: The cooling of the US - Iran situation led to a sharp decline in international oil prices, which is bearish for oil and fat prices. Short - term, shift to a wait - and - see approach [13]. - Eggs: Although the egg production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction has slowed. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, and the overall trend is strong, but the room and sustainability of future price increases are questionable. Maintain the idea of short - selling on rebounds in the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the support from rising cost in the far - term contracts [16]. - Pigs: The supply is in a concentrated realization period, while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increases in the medium term is still poor. With more regions seeing prices below 10 yuan and the price of piglets falling in the peak season, panic has spread, driving the futures price down. In the short - term, the spot price may remain weak. After the far - term valuation has declined, there are more differences, but the lack of significant capacity reduction and the premium situation make the case for price increases less convincing. Temporarily wait and see [19]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Market Information: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared to the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in China was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The ISO predicted in late February that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 181.29 million tons [2]. Cotton - Market Information: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to February 2026, China imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton processing trade import quota with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. From March 5 to March 12, the US's current - year cotton export sales were 46,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.1919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,400 tons; the export to China in that week was 2,400 tons, with cumulative exports to China of 106,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,800 tons. As of the week of March 20, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.6%, a 2.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from the February forecast and 540,000 tons more than the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February forecast and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The US production forecast was 3.03 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast, with the export forecast remaining the same, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio at 30.43%, unchanged. Brazil's production forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's production forecast increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [5]. Protein Meal - Market Information: S&P Global predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January. The US soybean planting area forecast was raised to 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From March 5 to March 12, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with current - year cumulative exports of 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; the export to China in that week was 80,000 tons, with current - year cumulative exports to China of 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20, the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons; the soybean crushing plant operating rate was 54.22%, a 14.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 42.717 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons from the February forecast and an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from the February forecast and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The US soybean production forecast was 11.599 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast; Brazil's production forecast was 18 million tons, unchanged from the February forecast; Argentina's production forecast was 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the February forecast. The US export volume forecast remained at 4.286 million tons [9]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The President of Indonesia stated that coal, crude palm oil, and their derivative production enterprises in Indonesia are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand. From March 1 to 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons year - on - year. In February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons year - on - year. From March 1 to 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.166 million tons according to AmSpec, a 49.6% increase from the same period last month; and 1.191 million tons according to ITS, a 38.1% increase from the same period last month. As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. As of the week of March 20, the domestic sample data of the three major oil inventories was 1.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95,000 tons [12]. Eggs - Market Information: Yesterday, most egg prices in China were stable. The average price in the main production areas remained at 3.28 yuan per catty, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 3.1 yuan per catty, and the price of small - sized eggs in Guantao decreased by 0.05 yuan to 3.11 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the overall market sales were average, and the sales in some areas were slightly better. It is expected that most egg prices in China will remain stable in the short - term, and prices in a few areas may rise [15]. Pigs - Market Information: Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally continued to decline. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.07 yuan to 9.71 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.16 yuan to 9.51 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou decreased by 0.12 yuan to 8.87 yuan per kilogram. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing was low, the price - pressing sentiment was strong, and the sales of farmers faced great resistance. It is expected that today, the strategy of reducing prices to increase sales may continue, and the actual transaction price may decline again [18].