工业硅、多晶硅、碳酸锂日报-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On March 25, 2026, equity index futures rose while most commodities dropped, with energy leading the decline and precious metals leading the increase [9][11]. - The main contracts of silicon metal, poly - silicon, and lithium carbonate all rose on March 25, with price trends affected by supply - demand fundamentals and macro factors [17][24][30]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 25, equity index futures rose (IC rose 2.2%, IM rose 1.7%), and most commodities dropped. Energy led the drop and precious metals led the raise. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver (up 7.0% with a 1.5% month - on - month increase in open interest), platinum (up 5.6% with a 0.2% month - on - month increase in open interest), and palladium (up 5.1% with a 4.2% month - on - month increase in open interest). The top three decliners were LPG (down 8.0% with a 1.6% month - on - month increase in open interest), fuel oil (down 6.5% with a 6.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and SCFIS(Europe) (down 6.0% with a 21.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On March 25, the main contract of silicon metal rose 1.7% to 8770 yuan/ton (GFEX). It remains in an oversupplied condition. Coal price increases offer cost support, and silicon prices are expected to fluctuate sideways. Geopolitical conflicts affect energy and coal prices, providing cost support. Northwest supply is stable, and Southwest supply is low in the dry season. Demand from polysilicon, organosilicon, and aluminum alloy is weak [17][18][19]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On March 25, the main poly - silicon futures contract rose 2.8% to 36750 yuan/ton (GFEX). Weak demand drags down prices, but supply is at a low level. In the medium to long term, prices may fluctuate widely as supply contracts and leading enterprises integrate [24][25][26]. 1.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - On March 25, the main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 4.3% to 159120 yuan/ton (GFEX). Short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply disruptions persist, demand is divergent, and the market is pricing in the expectation of an extended ore export ban in Zimbabwe [30][31][32]. 2. Important News 2.1 Macro News - Wang Yi held a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi on March 24. Araghchi stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all except warring countries [38]. - The US government submitted a 15 - point peace proposal to Iran via Pakistan, and is considering a one - month ceasefire for further negotiations [38]. - Iran refused to negotiate with Witkoff and Kushner, accusing them of "bad faith" [38]. - The Israeli military bombed two naval cruise missile production sites in Tehran on March 25 [38].