弱现实与强预期并存，双粕市场近弱远强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a co - existence of weak current reality and strong future expectations, with different trends for various products. For example, double - meal markets are weak in the near term and strong in the long term; vegetable oils are回调 due to geopolitical easing expectations; and the corn market experiences a slight decline due to increased alternatives [1][6]. - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, policy announcements, and supply - demand relationships. Different products have different influencing factors and future trends, and investors need to pay attention to various risk factors and market changes [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - View: Vegetable oils are回调 again under the expectation of geopolitical easing. In the future, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - buying strategy [5]. - Logic: Macroscopically, there are signs of further easing in the US - Israel - Iran war, with a significant drop in crude oil and an expected relief of inflation pressure, causing vegetable oils to follow the decline. In the soybean sector, the external market of US soybeans and US soybean oil is weakly fluctuating, and the "buy oil and sell meal" arbitrage is active. Domestically, the shutdown of oil - pressing plants has led to a decline in soybean oil inventory, but demand is weak, and the basis is relatively stable. For palm oil, the production reduction and significant increase in export volume in the first half of March in Malaysia have boosted market sentiment, but high prices and geopolitical issues may suppress demand. For rapeseed oil, the external market follows the trends of crude oil and US soybeans, and the domestic market expects an increase in rapeseed supply [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - View: There is a co - existence of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The double - meal market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. Rapeseed meal may be weaker than soybean meal [1][6]. - Logic: Internationally, the news is chaotic, and crude oil prices fluctuate sharply. Brazil's soybean harvesting progress is slower than the same period last year but basically in line with the five - year average. China's difficulties in obtaining phytosanitary certificates and increased shipping risks in the Persian Gulf have led to lower - than - expected soybean exports from Brazil in March. The strong US soybean export data restricts the decline of the futures price, and the market is waiting for the details of the US biodiesel policy. Domestically, due to the cooling of capital sentiment, institutions are shifting positions to the 2609 contract. The spot price of oil mills has decreased with the market, and the near - month basis is stable with a slight increase in some areas. The downward space of soybean meal is limited. For rapeseed meal, aquaculture farms have established a small number of long - term basis positions, and the granulated rapeseed meal in bonded warehouses has mostly been sold but is waiting for terminal pick - up [1][6]. 3.3 Corn - View: Corn prices experience a slight decline due to increased alternatives. In the short term, it may experience a phased decline, and in the medium term, it is generally bullish [6][7]. - Logic: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast is stable, while in North China, the arrival of grain is high, and the price is slightly lower. Northern ports have raised prices to attract grain, and the demand in the southern ports is limited. The supply pressure is temporarily not large, and the demand at the feed and deep - processing ends is improving. The inventory of grain - using enterprises has increased. The increase in alternative supply such as wheat also affects the corn market [7]. 3.4 Pigs - View: The supply and demand of pigs are loose, and the pig price fluctuates at a low level. In the short and medium term, it is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and in the long term, the pig price may bottom out and rebound in the third quarter [8]. - Logic: In the short term, the supply has increased, and the demand is weak. In the medium term, the pressure of pig slaughter is high. In the long term, although the sow inventory has decreased, the sow productivity has increased. The current process of reducing production capacity is not smooth, and the consumption is in the off - season [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - View: The risk preference has recovered, and the market continues to rebound. The market is expected to fluctuate [9][10][11]. - Logic: As the geopolitical conflict has not further escalated, the market risk preference has continued to recover, and the rubber price has continued to rebound. Fundamentally, the Yunnan rubber - producing area has started tapping, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle East have been affected, which is negative for the price. The market is mainly affected by the macro - logic, and there are few new marginal positive factors [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The market has reached a new high since listing. If crude oil continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short term [12]. - Logic: The tight supply logic of butadiene has been continuously strengthened. Due to the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the arrival rhythm of key raw materials, the supply of butadiene has been passively reduced. Even if the price of butadiene is higher than that of downstream products, as long as the geopolitical situation remains tense, the price is still likely to rise [12]. 3.7 Cotton - View: The cotton price rebounds within the range. In the long - term, it is expected to be bullish, and in the short - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [13]. - Logic: Fundamentally, the processing and inspection of Xinjiang cotton in the 25/26 season are basically completed, and the inventory - building period has ended, entering the de - stocking period. The export data of textiles and clothing from January to February are good, and the textile end has smooth sales and low inventory. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to be bullish, but in the short - term, there is a lack of new positive factors, and the reduction of the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is uncertain [13]. 3.8 Sugar - View: The sugar price fluctuates with the oil price in the short term. In the long - term, there may be an upward driving force [14][15][16]. - Logic: In the short term, affected by the oil price fluctuations caused by the Middle East conflict, the market is expected to fluctuate. Although the global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 season, if the conflict drives the oil price to remain high, it may affect the production in Brazil's new sugar - crushing season and tighten the global sugar supply. The current domestic and foreign sugar prices are undervalued, and the sugar price is easily affected by funds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - View: After continuous rebounds, it is gradually approaching the pressure level. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [17]. - Logic: The pulp market has experienced a continuous rebound after a sharp decline. Fundamentally, the consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. In the future, the demand in the paper industry will decline seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp mills have high inventory and great sales pressure. However, the production of coniferous pulp in high - cost areas overseas is in a loss state, and the price has strong cost support at a low level [17]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - View: It fluctuates within a range. In the short - and medium - term, the market may first rise and then fall, and in the long - term, it will fluctuate within a wide range in the first half of 2026 [19]. - Logic: The fundamentals of double - glue paper have changed little recently. In the short - and medium - term, the first quarter to the second quarter is the traditional peak demand season. With the resumption of work of downstream printing factories and the upcoming autumn textbook publishing tenders, the price is supported. In the long - term, the market supply and demand are loose, and the price increase space is limited [19]. 3.11 Logs - View: Logs fluctuate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation, but there is a risk of high - level fluctuation [20]. - Logic: Since March, the rise of log futures has been driven by cost increases and supply contractions. Geopolitical conflicts have led to high international oil prices, increasing shipping costs and import costs. New Zealand suppliers have actively reduced production and raised prices, and the supply is in short supply. However, the actual terminal demand recovery has not kept up, and there may be phased arrival pressure at the port [20].