悲观情绪缓解，基本金属震荡止跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and base metals have stopped falling and are oscillating. The improvement in supply and demand is expected to support prices. In the short term, the information about the easing of the US - Iran military conflict has led to short - covering, which helps to improve the short - term panic sentiment. In the medium term, the risk of supply - side disturbances still supports prices, and actual demand and supply - demand are expected to continue to improve. Base metals are expected to show an oscillating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 - Copper: With the easing of the Middle East conflict, market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized. The supply of copper ore is in a tight pattern, and the supply - side contraction expectation of refined copper is further strengthened. Demand is entering the peak season, and copper supply - demand has improved marginally. Short - term copper prices are suppressed by high inventories and the rising US dollar index, and are expected to oscillate [6]. - Alumina: The macro - sentiment has magnified the market fluctuations. From the fundamental perspective, the operating capacity of alumina has little change, and the supply - demand balance has improved significantly but is still slightly in surplus. The demand for alumina is under pressure, but the cost is supported by rising freight and auxiliary material prices. Recently, there have been disturbances at the ore end, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - Aluminum: The US economic data shows structural differentiation, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict has strong uncertainty. The domestic supply capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The overseas supply is disturbed by the Middle East conflict, and the medium - term supply increase in Indonesia is restricted. The demand shows a slight recovery, and the inventory has decreased. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and in the medium term, the price center is expected to rise [8][9]. - Aluminum Alloy: The cost is strongly supported, and the supply is restricted by policies. The demand is affected by high prices and subsidy reduction, and the inventory has decreased. In the short and medium terms, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - Zinc: The macro - pessimistic sentiment has eased. The supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the peak consumption season. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate [11]. - Lead: The cost support is stable. The production of lead ingots is at a high level, the demand of lead - acid battery enterprises is gradually recovering, but the terminal demand is weak. The lead price is expected to oscillate [14]. - Nickel: The supply pressure has slightly decreased, but the inventory is still high. The Indonesian policy has adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the implementation of Indonesian policies needs to be continuously monitored [14]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price is stable, providing cost support. The production in March is expected to increase, and the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory has slightly decreased. The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the Indonesian policies need to be continuously monitored [16]. - Tin: The supply problem has eased, but the supply in the main production areas is still fragile. The demand is expected to continue to grow. The tin price has bottom support but is suppressed by the macro - sentiment and supply recovery expectation in the short term, and is expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.2行情监测 - Copper: Not provided in the given content - Alumina: Not provided in the given content - Aluminum: Not provided in the given content - Aluminum Alloy: Not provided in the given content - Zinc: Not provided in the given content - Lead: Not provided in the given content - Nickel: Not provided in the given content - Stainless Steel: Not provided in the given content - Tin: Not provided in the given content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On March 25, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2505.87, down 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2799.49, up 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2541.47, down 1.12%. The non - ferrous metals index on March 25, 2026, was 2594.45, with a daily increase of 0.47%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.84%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.41% [145][147].