国新国证期货早报-20260326

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 25, 2026, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.30% to 3931.84, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.95% to 13801.00, and the ChiNext Index up 2.01% to 3316.97. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 96.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index was strong, while the coke and coking coal weighted indices declined. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, and other futures were affected by factors such as news of the US - Iran conflict and oil price changes [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 25, the A - share major indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.01%. The trading volume of the three - market was 2.19 trillion yuan, up 96.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4537.47, up 62.74 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 25, the coke weighted index oscillated and closed at 1807.8, down 25.6. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range oscillation, closing at 1296.6 yuan, down 13.5. Coking profit was average with a slight increase in daily production. Coke inventory changed little, and the purchasing willingness of traders improved slightly. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1516 vehicles. Coal mine resumption was good, weekly production increased slightly, and the spot auction transaction price rose due to market concerns about energy [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the sharp drop in oil prices and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated lower on March 25. At night, it had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight increase. As of March 24, 12 sugar mills in Zhanjiang, Guangdong had completed squeezing, and 5 were still in production. It was expected that the latest - squeezing mill would stop in early April. As of late March, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was about 600,000 tons, and the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season was expected to be slightly less than the previous season's 650,000 tons [4]. Rubber - Due to the news that the US submitted a 15 - point plan to Iran to end the conflict, oil prices dropped sharply. The market's optimistic sentiment about the possible easing of the US - Iran conflict was reignited, and the Southeast Asian spot quotes oscillated higher. The Shanghai rubber oscillated upward on March 25. Affected by the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. From January to February 2026, China's tire production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.77526 billion pieces, and the cumulative production of synthetic rubber increased by 8.5% year - on - year to 1.542 million tons [4]. Soybean and Bean Meal - As of March 21, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was 67.7%, behind last year's 76.4%. Brazil's soybean exports in March were expected to be 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast. On March 25, the bean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture was actively solving soybean export quarantine problems, and the market's concern about imported soybean supply was gradually subsiding. The bean meal inventory last week was 620,000 tons, up 30,000 tons week - on - week and down 170,000 tons month - on - month [6]. Pig - On March 25, the pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Due to the high inventory of breeding sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased. The scale pig enterprises' March sales plan increased month - on - month, and the sales rhythm accelerated. The demand was in the seasonal off - season, the downstream white - strip sales were weak, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was low. Although frozen product storage and secondary fattening provided some support, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [6]. Palm Oil - On March 25, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's palm oil futures followed the oil price fluctuations. After a sharp drop in the morning, it was weak. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji - like K - line. The highest price was 9676, the lowest was 9464, and the closing price was 9510, down 1.39% from the previous trading day. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, up 38.4% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the exports were 1,389,549 tons, up 51% [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract CU2605 closed at 95,590 yuan/ton, with an intraday range of 93,480 - 96,380 yuan/ton. The trading volume remained high. Driven by technical repair and downstream replenishment, the copper price rebounded from the short - term oversold situation. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while the overseas inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, it was likely to maintain a range - bound pattern [6]. Cotton - On the night of March 25, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15,370 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. As of late March 2026, the total inventory of un - cleared foreign cotton in Qingdao, Nantong, and Zhangjiagang was about 470,900 tons, an increase of 38,700 tons from the end of February and about 200,000 tons since October last year [6]. Log - On March 25, the log 2605 main contract opened at 820, with a minimum of 807, a maximum of 823.5, and closed at 816, with a decrease of 1315 lots. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu were both 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Iron Ore - On March 25, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.83%, closing at 806.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment and arrival volume increased this period, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's hot - metal demand increased. The short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8]. Asphalt - On March 25, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.1%, closing at 4410 yuan. The raw material supply was unstable, the refinery's production plan in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the downstream demand started slowly, and the refinery's sales volume decreased month - on - month. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price [8]. Steel - On March 25, rb2605 closed at 3132 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The US proposed a 15 - item plan to end the conflict in Iran through Pakistan, but Iran's response was unclear. The domestic energy and chemical futures prices continued to fall, and the coking coal futures price also weakened. The domestic steel demand recovery was slow, the market transaction was average, and the cost support was unstable. The short - term steel price might have a weak and narrow - range adjustment [8]. Alumina - On March 25, ao2605 closed at 2963 yuan/ton. The Guinea Ministry of Mines planned to restrict bauxite exports in early April to stabilize prices, and the supply contraction expectation increased. Some domestic alumina enterprises carried out maintenance and production reduction, and the new production capacity had not been put into production, which relieved the short - term supply pressure. However, the long - term oversupply expectation remained, and the social inventory was still at a high level. The downstream procurement demand was average, and the consumption sentiment was low [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 25, al2605 closed at 23,860 yuan/ton. The market was evaluating the possible peace - talk plan between the US and Iran, but the US was also increasing the deployment of ground troops. The oil price continued to decline, and non - ferrous metals continued to rebound. Some aluminum plants in the Middle East had production cuts. The supply side was stable, the aluminum - water ratio increased slightly, and the social inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The demand side showed good receiving, and the downstream and terminal replenishment willingness supported the spot price [8].