美伊谈判扑朔迷离，能化市场延续震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is uncertain, causing the energy and chemical market to continue to fluctuate. The core factor affecting the current oil price is the geopolitical situation, and the market is in a state of expectation swing. The oil price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the chemical products are treated with a fluctuating mindset [1][2]. - The supply and demand of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors, such as geopolitical situation, production reduction, and cost pressure. Most products are expected to show a fluctuating trend in the short - term, and the market is waiting for the geopolitical situation to become clear [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - View: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and oil prices are oscillating at a high level. - Main Logic: The geopolitical prospects in the Middle East are still highly uncertain. The crude oil market currently faces a large supply gap. The potential release volume of floating storage in Iran and Russia is relatively limited, and the production reduction pressure of Persian Gulf countries remains. The expected deviation in the future mainly comes from factors such as the progress of the US - Iran conflict, tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on energy facilities. - Outlook: Oscillation [5]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - View: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference starts to repair upwards. - Main Logic: The geopolitical situation is the core factor affecting the current oil price. The market is worried about the restart of the US - Iran negotiation, and the oil price drops. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference rebounds but is still at a low level. The profit of asphalt refineries deteriorates and then repairs upwards. The reduction of asphalt production by refineries may drive the price difference to rise. The supply of asphalt is expected to further decline, and the inventory pressure is still large. - Outlook: Oscillation [6]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil partially declines. - Main Logic: The geopolitical situation is the core driver of the current oil price. The market is worried about the restart of the US - Iran negotiation, and the oil price drop drives the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price down. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil are affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran. In the long - term, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics, which is a long - term negative factor. - Outlook: Oscillation [6]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the high - level decline of crude oil. The current market focuses on the progress of the geopolitical situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main product attributes. During the rise of oil prices, its valuation has been significantly repaired. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. - Outlook: Oscillation [8]. 3.1.5 Methanol - View: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and methanol oscillates within a range. - Main Logic: On March 25, 2026, the methanol futures price oscillated weakly. The price in the inland market回调, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly. The inventory of production enterprises and ports decreased. The overseas situation is uncertain, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium. - Outlook: Oscillation [27]. 3.1.6 Urea - View: Urea oscillates and consolidates under the game of long and short positions. - Main Logic: On March 25, 2026, urea oscillated and consolidated. The supply is sufficient, and the demand side has a slight loosening of agricultural demand and a moderate recovery of industrial demand. The spot is restricted by policy price limits and commercial storage release. - Outlook: Oscillation [28]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - View: The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continuously disturbs the market sentiment, and ethylene glycol maintains a high - level consolidation. - Main Logic: The high - level callback of international oil prices weakens the support for chemical products. The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port will drop to a low level in early April. The market will continue to oscillate widely, and the reduction of polyester factories' production weakens the upstream demand. - Outlook: Oscillation [20]. 3.1.8 PX - View: The expectation of the Strait's restart strengthens, and the cost pressure on downstream polyester factories is still significant. - Main Logic: The expectation of the end of the US - Iran war and the restart of the Strait suddenly increases, causing a certain callback in international oil prices. The supply of PX in the future is affected by the reduction of domestic and overseas PX device loads. The high price of PX/PTA forces the polyester production reduction expectation to continue to increase, and the demand - side negative feedback suppresses the PX price and efficiency. - Outlook: Oscillation [11]. 3.1.9 PTA - View: The production reduction of filament is implemented and the amplitude is expanded, weakening the demand support for the upstream. - Main Logic: The high - level decline of international oil prices and the callback of PX prices. Although the cost decline drives the downstream polyester sales volume to increase, the current high cost still puts great pressure on polyester factories. The spot inventory is still relatively loose, and the basis has not strengthened significantly. The production reduction of filament factories weakens the upstream demand and increases the difficulty of inventory removal. - Outlook: Oscillation [11]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - View: After the phased centralized procurement, the downstream will observe again. - Main Logic: The international oil price fluctuates widely, and the market sentiment strongly games around the geopolitical situation. The polyester raw material price fluctuates in line with the cost. The supply of short - fiber continues to increase, but the downstream trading is average, and most are waiting and seeing. After the phased centralized procurement, the downstream will observe again. - Outlook: Oscillation [22]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - View: The cost volatility intensifies, and the bottle chip follows passively. - Main Logic: The upstream cost has a high - level callback, and the polyester bottle chip follows the upstream raw materials to rise and then fall. The overall absolute price change is limited, and the short - term price trend is expected to still follow the upstream cost fluctuation. The current supply and demand of polyester bottle chips are tight, and the overall fundamentals are relatively good. - Outlook: Oscillation [24]. 3.1.12 Styrene - View: Geopolitics brings positive effects on the supply and demand of styrene, and styrene runs strongly with oscillation. - Main Logic: The styrene price is still dominated by the geopolitical situation, with strong repeated disturbances. On the supply side, some devices have new product outputs, and attention should be paid to whether there are new device overhauls or load reductions. On the demand side, the overall downstream profit declines, and the support for the price weakens. There is an expected increase in exports. - Outlook: Oscillation [17]. 3.1.13 PE - View: The overhaul continues to increase, and PE should be treated with caution. - Main Logic: On March 25, the plastic main contract declined, and the market game was intense. The expectation of the possible cooling of the US - Iran situation led to the decline of oil prices. The geopolitical prospects are still highly uncertain. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The energy and chemical sentiment is still repeated in the short - term, and the refinery start - up decline still supports the near - month contract. The spot price fluctuates, and the downstream trading is average. - Outlook: Oscillation [32]. 3.1.14 PP - View: The disturbance of the expectation of geopolitical relaxation confronts the increase of overhauls, and PP oscillates. - Main Logic: On March 25, the PP main contract declined. The expectation of the possible cooling of the US - Iran situation led to a sharp decline in oil prices. The geopolitical prospects are still highly uncertain. The direct impact on the import side is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH in the PP refinery are still under pressure, and the coal - based profit has been significantly repaired. The overall start - up is at a low level, and the PP现货 trading is average. - Outlook: Oscillation [33]. 3.1.15 PL - View: Geopolitical expectations disturb, and PL oscillates. - Main Logic: On March 25, the PL main contract declined. Individual enterprises released propylene, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment of industry players. The enterprise offers were mainly stable, and some prices continued to decline, dragging down the actual transaction price. The short - term powder profit was compressed, and the downstream factory acceptance was limited. - Outlook: Oscillation [34]. 3.1.16 PVC - View: It is mainly affected by sentiment, and PVC should be treated with caution. - Main Logic: At the macro - level, the market is gaming the US - Iran peace negotiation, and the commodity sentiment cools down. At the micro - level, both domestic and overseas production has been reduced, and the PVC inventory has been removed. The overall supply shows a downward trend, the downstream start - up has improved month - on - month, the enthusiasm for chasing up is not high, the overseas price has soared, and the foreign merchants are waiting and seeing. The cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and the enterprise is at a loss. - Outlook: Oscillation [35]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - View: The geopolitical sentiment declines, and caustic soda should be treated with caution. - Main Logic: At the macro - level, the market is gaming the US - Iran peace negotiation, and the commodity sentiment cools down. At the micro - level, both domestic and overseas production has been reduced, the caustic soda export has improved, and the inventory is expected to be removed. The alumina marginal device profit is poor, the production reduction has been realized, the demand for caustic soda is marginally boosted, the inventory of large alumina factories in Shandong is removed, the non - aluminum start - up season is not in full swing, the enthusiasm for chasing up 32% caustic soda is average, the export orders continue, and the price of 50% caustic soda is raised. - Outlook: Oscillation [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [39]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - Inter - variety Spread: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text, only the variety names are listed.