格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - The market is highly uncertain in the short - term due to geopolitical influence, and investors are advised to control their positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 2.30% to $4503.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.70% to $71.44 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract rose 1.82% to 1016.92 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 2.15% to 18000 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - On March 25, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.572 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1052.419 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust remained unchanged from the previous day, with the current holding at 15513.67 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 5.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 94.8%. By June, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points is 11.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point increase is 0.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.9% [1] - Putin signed a decree banning the export of gold bars over 100 grams from Russia and restricting the amount of cash rubles carried to the Eurasian Economic Union [1] - Iran's Foreign Minister stated that there is no negotiation with the US and no intention to talk with the US. Iranian officials said that the US's so - called "15 - point cease - fire proposal" is "listing fantasies". Iran said that neither a cease - fire nor negotiations are feasible at the current stage and put forward five conditions for a cease - fire: complete cessation of aggression and assassination, ensuring that war will not be imposed on Iran again, war reparations, end of the war on all fronts and by all resistance organizations, and recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz [1] Market Logic - On Wednesday, the US continued to send negotiation signals but at the same time stepped up troop deployment. Iran denied direct negotiations and responded strongly. ICE Brent crude oil rebounded after hitting a low. The US stock market rose slightly on Wednesday, the 2 - year US Treasury yield at the close was basically the same as on Tuesday, and the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 99.63. COMEX gold and silver both rose and then fell on Wednesday, closing slightly higher than the previous trading day. Recently, the US has shown an intention for peace talks, and oil and gold prices have initially stabilized, but the positions of the US and Iran still need to be reconciled, and the future development needs continuous attention [1] Trading Strategy - Due to geopolitical influence, the market has high short - term uncertainty. Investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]