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Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already includes the current geopolitical premium, so take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, short at high prices considering the high - price and unfavorable time for demand, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, it is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. - For PX, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Market Information: INE main crude oil futures closed down 28.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 3.72%, at 723.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 300.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.45%, at 4348.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 209.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.89%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy: Start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - Market Information: The main contract changed by (97.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3089 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - Strategy: Take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan 0 yuan/ton, Hebei 0 yuan/ton, Hubei 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 3 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, reported at 1863 yuan/ton [6]. - Strategy: Short at high prices, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - Market Information: Crude oil declined while RU rebounded. The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls believe in limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, improved demand in China, and rubber substitution. Bears believe in a marginal decline in macro - expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of March 19, 2026, the full - steel tire production load of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire production load of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still on hold. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 million tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons to 69.21 million tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15350 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1970 (+30) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1985 (+45) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 18000 (+100) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 18300 (+500) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16800 (+500) yuan. The Asian butadiene production rate decreased, and supply decreased, with an expected strong butadiene market [9][10][11]. - Strategy: Trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract fell 150 yuan, reported at 5703 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5500 (-360) yuan/ton, the basis was 203 (-170) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 98 (-11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2750 (+15) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke medium - sized material was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 728 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC production rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream production rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 million tons (-3.6) [14]. - Strategy: It is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The cost of East China pure benzene was 8245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 10105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 137 yuan/ton; the basis was 95 yuan/ton, a weakening of 63 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The non - integrated EB device profit was - 212.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126.8 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.25 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons. The weighted production rate of the three S products was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS production rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS production rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS production rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - Strategy: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 8715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 203 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The basis was - 215 yuan/ton, a weakening of 147 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 56.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.48 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 147 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 35 yuan/ton [21]. - Strategy: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, a weakening of 136 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 59.62 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 260 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 64 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 383 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49 yuan/ton [24]. - Strategy: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. PX - Market Information: The PX05 contract fell 206 yuan, reported at 9502 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 22 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. Some devices had issues such as postponed restart and shutdown. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of March were 31.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 million tons. The PXN was 139 US dollars (+26), the South Korean PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 385 US dollars (-100) [26]. - Strategy: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract fell 102 yuan, reported at 6592 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 million tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 33 yuan to 359 yuan [29]. - Strategy: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract fell 83 yuan, reported at 5036 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol production rate was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; among them, the syngas - based production rate was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - based production rate was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Some devices had load adjustments. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.8 million tons on March 24. The port inventory was 103.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1310 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder rebounded to 640 yuan [32]. - Strategy: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33].
能源化工日报-20260326
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-26 01:14