棉花：关注外部市场影响20260326

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton spot trading remains sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. The mainstream sales basis of different types of cotton in different regions is in a certain range [2]. - The overall sales of pure - cotton yarn in the market are average, with some high - priced quotes slightly reduced. The transportation cost of cotton yarn has increased due to the rise in oil prices. Downstream transactions are mainly small orders for rigid demand, and the market sentiment is cautious [2]. - The ICE cotton futures rose nearly 1% yesterday. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting area intention report next week, and it is estimated that the US cotton planting area in 2026 will decline slightly compared to 2025 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2605 closed at 15,340 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.82%, and the night - session closing price was 15,370 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.20%. The trading volume was 563,531 lots, an increase of 163,373 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,056,287 lots, a decrease of 12,710 lots [1]. - CY2605 closed at 21,670 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.53%, and the night - session closing price was 21,535 yuan/ton with a night - session decrease of 0.62%. The trading volume was 14,593 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 12,972 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 5 closed at 68.24 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 0.99% [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 12,344, a decrease of 10 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 430, an increase of 4 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 229, a decrease of 12 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 174 [1]. - Spot Price Data: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,584 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.76% [1]. - The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,523 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.76% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a decline rate of - 0.11% [1]. - The price in Hebei was 16,762 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a decline rate of - 0.18% [1]. - The 3128B index was 16,711 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a decline rate of - 0.13% [1]. - The Cotlook:A index was 77.75 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.10 cents/pound from the previous day, with a decline rate of - 0.13% [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.14% [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.05% [1]. - Spread Data: - The CF5 - 9 spread was - 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different types of cotton in different regions have different sales basis ranges [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The overall sales of pure - cotton yarn in the market are average, with some high - priced quotes slightly reduced. The transportation cost of cotton yarn has increased due to the rise in oil prices. Downstream transactions are mainly small orders for rigid demand, and the market sentiment is cautious. Spinning enterprises maintain normal production, and the production and sales are stable, but the restocking rhythm has slowed down [2]. - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures rose nearly 1% yesterday. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting area intention report next week. The average estimate of the US cotton planting area in 2026 is 9.229 million acres, a slight decrease from 9.283 million acres in 2025 [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]