钯：震荡偏空：铂：震荡偏空，提示注意回撤弹性

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for palladium is "shock and bearish" [1] Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the platinum and palladium markets, including price movements, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads, as well as relevant macro and industry news [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Price Information: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 505.85 with a 3.79% increase, gold - exchange platinum at 509.42 with a 7.21% increase. New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 1910.00 with a - 0.55% change, and London spot platinum (previous day) was 1925.20 with a 0.01% change. Palladium futures 2606 was 368.55 with a 2.52% increase, and RMB spot palladium was 346.00 with a 1.47% increase. New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1418.50 with a - 1.80% change, and London spot palladium (previous day) was 1407.50 with a - 1.95% change [1] - Trading Volume and Position: For Guangzhou platinum, the trading volume was 8448 kg with a - 1264 kg change, and the position was 21395 kg with a 3 kg change. NYMEX platinum had a trading volume of 23077 kg with a - 8753 kg change and a position of 58358 kg with a 27968 kg change. For Guangzhou palladium, the trading volume was 5644 kg with a - 808 kg change, and the position was 8409 kg with a 297 kg change. NYMEX palladium had a trading volume of 10637 kg with a - 1835 kg change and a position of 45109 kg with a - 190 kg change [1] - ETF Holdings: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3085483 with a - 14819 change, and palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1055913 with a - 22274 change [1] - Inventory: Guangzhou platinum inventory was 1 kg, NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 579274 with no change, Guangzhou palladium inventory was 1 kg, and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 248374 with no change [1] - Spreads: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was 3.57 with a - 12.24 change from the previous day. Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 5.30 with a - 4.50 change. The arbitrage cost for buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 was 6.26 with a 0.22 change. The spread between Guangzhou platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 23.78 with a 17.72 change. The spread between RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 22.55 with a - 4.05 change. The spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract and 2610 contract was 0.20 with a - 5.30 change. The arbitrage cost for buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 was 4.63 with a 0.11 change. The spread between Guangzhou palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 15.55 [1] - Exchange - related Data: The US dollar index was 99.64 with a 0.13% increase. The US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 6.89 with a 0.14% increase, the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.89 with a 0.02% increase, and the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.79 with a - 0.07% change [1] Macro and Industry News - The US government lifted the sales restriction on E15 blended gasoline containing 15% ethanol [4] - Hungary suspended gas supply to Ukraine due to the obstruction of the "Friendship" oil pipeline in the Ukrainian section [4] - Zelensky said that the US proposed that if Ukraine withdraws troops from Donbass, a security guarantee agreement can be finalized [4] - The US Secretary of the Interior brought back physical gold worth $100 million during a visit to Venezuela [4] - The Venezuelan acting president said that the US imports of crude oil from Venezuela have reached the highest level since 2019 [4] - Putin signed a decree to ban the export of gold bars over 100 grams from Russia and restrict the amount of cash rubles carried to the Eurasian Economic Union [4] - According to Interfax, Russia may re - impose a temporary ban on gasoline exports [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is - 1, and that of palladium is - 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3]