国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260326

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated March 26, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - For nickel, there are contradictions and differences between the macro and the ore end, and the short - term long - short game has intensified; for stainless steel, it is suppressed by overseas macro factors while supported by the actual cost [2][4] Fundamental Data - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,130, with a change of 2,650 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,490, with a change of 200 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 460,381, and that of the stainless steel main contract was 295,952 [4] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel was 134,700, the Russian nickel premium was - 250, and the nickel bean premium was 500. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,083, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference was 264 [4] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [4] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [5] - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million and 270 million tons, and PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota is reduced by 70% compared to 2025 [7][9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [11] 2. Lithium Carbonate Core View - Attention should be paid to the actual demand [12] Fundamental Data - Futures Data: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 159,120, with a change of 6,180 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 233,304, and the open interest was 251,957 [14] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,500 [14] Macro and Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a seminar on the construction of the new - energy vehicle waste power battery recycling system [15] - Wengfu Group raised the ex - factory price of wet - process 85 phosphoric acid by 500 yuan/ton on March 25, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 1,200 yuan/ton in March [16] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [16] 3. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the boost from news; polysilicon is in a state of bottom - seeking oscillation [17][18] Fundamental Data - Futures Data: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,770, with a change of 165 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 217,959, and the open interest was 232,078. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 36,750, with a change of 1,020 compared to T - 1 [18] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8,550, the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9,900, and the price of polysilicon N - type re - feed was 40,500 [18] Macro and Industry News - In February 2026, the wind power mechanism electricity price settlement reference price in Shandong Province decreased by 16.64% month - on - month, and the photovoltaic mechanism electricity price settlement reference price decreased by 64.83% month - on - month [19][20] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]