观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20260326

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Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4] - Silver: Falls from the oscillation platform [2][4] - Copper: The rising US dollar exerts pressure on prices [2][8] - Zinc: Ranges sideways [2][11] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][14] - Tin: Monitor the stabilization of macro - sentiment [2][17] - Aluminum: Ranges within a certain interval; Alumina: Runs weakly; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2][20] - Platinum: Oscillates with a bearish bias, and attention should be paid to the retracement elasticity; Palladium: Oscillates with a bearish bias [2][23] - Nickel: There are contradictions between macro and the mining end, and short - term long - short games intensify; Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors suppress, while real - world costs provide support [2][27] Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 940.00 with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the night - session closing price was 980.00 with a decline of 1.30%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 15498 with a daily decline of 12.30%, and the night - session closing price was 17246.00 with an increase of 3.47%. The trading volume and positions of gold and silver futures also changed to varying degrees [4]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai gold decreased by 99 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 1,989,464 ounces. The spreads of gold and silver also showed different changes, such as the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 remaining unchanged at - 19.01 [4]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 95,590 with a daily increase of 1.66%, and the night - session closing price was 96250 with an increase of 0.69%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 105,601, and the position decreased by 1,739 [8]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 10,599 tons, and the inventory of LME copper increased by 900 tons. The LME copper cash - 3M spread decreased by 6.47 [8]. - Industry News: Zambia aims to triple copper production to over 3 million tons by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah after a worker died in an accident on March 12 [8][10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22935 with a decline of 0.17%, and the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3038.5 with a decline of 2.08%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc also changed [11]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 1354 tons, and the inventory of LME zinc decreased by 625 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread of zinc decreased by 3.97 [11]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16495 with an increase of 0.46%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk remained unchanged at 1898.5. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai lead and LME lead changed [14]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 1701 tons, and the inventory of LME lead decreased by 200 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread of lead increased by 2.75 [14]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 352,430 with an increase of 1.91%, and the night - session closing price was 354,680 with an increase of 0.69%. The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 33,699, and the position decreased by 2,195 [17]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 408 tons, and the inventory of LME tin decreased by 25 tons. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread increased by 21 [17]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23860, and the closing price of the LME aluminum 3M was 3242. The trading volume and positions of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures all changed [20]. - Inventory and Spread: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 135.60 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 42.68 million tons. The spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy also showed different changes [20]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 505.85 with an increase of 3.79%, and the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 368.55 with an increase of 2.52%. The trading volume and positions of platinum and palladium futures changed [23]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of platinum and palladium futures remained unchanged in some cases, and the spreads of platinum and palladium also changed [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,130, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,490. The trading volume and positions of nickel and stainless - steel futures changed [27]. - Industry News: The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, and some nickel mines in Indonesia and other regions have production changes, such as the planned restart of a nickel mine in Guatemala and production quota adjustments in Indonesia [27][28][30].