黑色建材日报-20260326

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state, with marginal improvement in demand and gradual inventory reduction, but no strong trend - driven force has been formed yet. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The bottom support of iron ore is strengthened, and the iron - making water output is expected to continue to recover after the end of production restrictions [5]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is not over, but in the short term, there is a risk of price correction due to macro - economic recession expectations and high volatility caused by the Middle - East situation. The black - metal sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds [10]. - The prices of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are expected to fluctuate. Industrial silicon is supported by cost, while polycrystalline silicon is looking for a bottom due to weak fundamentals [19][21]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate in a wide range. Glass is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, and soda ash has a loose supply - demand pattern [25][27]. - For coking coal, the medium - to - long - term outlook is optimistic, but in the short term, it is recommended to conduct short - term long - side operations or wait and see [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3132 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.41%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 12183 tons, and the main - contract positions decreased by 56172 lots [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2940 tons, and the main - contract positions decreased by 21168 lots [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient, and the short - term support for steel demand is limited. The terminal demand is expected to remain weak. The hot - rolled coil demand recovers quickly, and the inventory is being reduced. The rebar supply and demand both increase, and the inventory is slightly reduced [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The iron ore main contract (I2605) closed at 806.50 yuan/ton, down 2.12% (- 17.50). The positions decreased by 31577 lots to 41.43 million lots. The weighted positions were 89.00 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 27.26 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.27% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Affected by the negotiation news, the iron ore price dropped rapidly. The overseas ore shipments continued to rise, the near - end arrivals increased, and the iron - making water output increased. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel - mill imported ore inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 25, the manganese - silicon main contract (SM605) closed up 0.19% at 6492 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6250 yuan/ton, with a discount of 52 yuan/ton to the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) closed down 0.20% at 6088 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 12 yuan/ton to the futures [7][9]. Strategy Viewpoints - The manganese - silicon supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. The ferrosilicon fundamentals are good. The future market trends are affected by the overall black - metal market sentiment and cost - push or supply - contraction factors [11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 25, the coking - coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 0.68% at 1241.0 yuan/ton. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 1.22% at 1776.0 yuan/ton. Different types of spot prices had different premiums or discounts to the futures [13]. Strategy Viewpoints - In the short term, the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. However, the energy attribute of coking coal may be stimulated. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and in the medium - to - long - term, the coking - coal price is optimistic [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The main - contract (SI2605) closed at 8770 yuan/ton, up 1.92% (+ 165). The weighted positions increased by 20576 lots to 370051 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged [18]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The main - contract (PS2605) closed at 36750 yuan/ton, up 2.85% (+ 1020). The weighted positions increased by 261 lots to 50720 lots. The spot prices of some types decreased [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand improvement is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate with cost support [19]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to fluctuate to find a bottom [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The spot price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.86%. The top 20 long - position holders increased 18077 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 36327 lots [24]. - Soda ash: The main - contract closed at 1240 yuan/ton, down 1.27% (- 16). The spot price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory decreased by 1.86%. The top 20 long - position holders increased 296 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 3335 lots [26]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The supply contraction supports the market sentiment, but high inventory and weak demand restrict price increases. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the reference range for the main contract is 1030 - 1100 yuan/ton [25]. - Soda ash: The supply is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the reference range for the main contract is 1200 - 1280 yuan/ton [27].