期货市场交易指引-20260326

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][5][6] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1][9][10][11] - Non - ferrous Metals: Holding short positions moderately on copper at high prices, strengthening observation on aluminum, suggesting waiting and seeing on nickel, range trading for tin, expecting gold and silver to trade in a range, and interval oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][14][17][18][20][22][23][24] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish in a range; selling short on soda ash at high prices; buying rubber on dips without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1][26][28][29][31][32][33][35][37] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish in a range; apples and jujubes are expected to trade in a range [1][39][40][42] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Taking a bearish stance on the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs on rebounds, treating the 09 contract as range - bound; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to have short - term interval oscillation; being cautious about chasing long on the 05 contract of soybean meal; reducing long positions gradually on oils and fats [1][44][46][47][49][50] Core Views - The global market is affected by multiple factors such as the Middle East situation, inflation, and interest rate policies. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [5][6][15][17][22][23] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to factors like the Iran - US game and inflation pressure, they may trade in a range in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - Government Bonds: They are expected to trade in a range. The short - end shows limited downward movement, and the long - end spread has room for repair, but is affected by geopolitical and oil price factors [6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Short - term trading is recommended. Domestic coking coal production has increased, and the inventory structure is favorable. The market is trading the substitution effect of coal for oil and gas [9] - Rebar: Range trading is suggested. The price is currently below the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, and the inventory has peaked and declined. The price is expected to trade in a range in the short term [10] - Glass: Selling out - of - the - money call options is advised. The supply has decreased, the inventory reduction has slowed down, and the demand is general. The price is expected to be bearish in a range with a possibility of a small rebound [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Holding short positions moderately at high prices is recommended. The price is affected by macro factors, demand, and inventory. The short - term has downward risks, but there is also support from domestic inventory reduction and the consumption season [14][15] - Aluminum: Strengthening observation is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as raw material prices, production capacity changes, and the Middle East situation. It is suggested to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market [17] - Nickel: Waiting and seeing is advised. The price is affected by factors such as nickel ore supply, refined nickel production and inventory, and downstream demand. It is expected to be bullish in a range [18][19] - Tin: Range trading is recommended. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. The price is expected to have wide - range oscillation [20] - Silver and Gold: They are expected to trade in a range. Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy, the Middle East situation, and inflation, the medium - term price central axis has moved up [22][23] - Lithium Carbonate: It is expected to have interval oscillation. The supply and demand are both increasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances and import volume changes [24][25] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: It is expected to be bullish in a range. The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export has support. Attention should be paid to policies and risk events [26] - Caustic Soda: It is expected to be bullish in a range. The demand has marginal support, the supply has maintenance expectations, and the price has a strong rebound under low valuation [28] - Styrene: It is expected to be bullish in a range. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, the inventory pressure is light, and it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [29] - Polyolefins: They are expected to be bullish in a range. The cost is supported by rising oil and gas prices, and the supply - demand situation has marginal improvement [31] - Rubber: Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended. The cost is supported, but the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to be in a range - bound state [32] - Urea: Range trading is recommended. The supply is at a high level, the demand is supported by agriculture and compound fertilizers, and the inventory is decreasing [33][34] - Methanol: Range trading is recommended. The supply and demand are both in a certain state, and the inventory is decreasing [35] - Soda Ash: Selling short at high prices is recommended. The supply is high, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: They are expected to be bullish in a range. The global cotton supply is increasing, the demand is slightly decreasing, and the domestic consumption is strong. The price is expected to be bullish due to the positive impact of chemical fiber prices [39] - Apples: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is in a state of polarization, and the price varies in different regions [40][41] - Jujubes: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality, and the trading is relatively light [42] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: Taking a bearish stance on the 05 and 07 contracts on rebounds and treating the 09 contract as range - bound is recommended. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the long - term price is affected by capacity reduction [44][45] - Eggs: They are expected to trade in a range. The demand is supported by festivals, the supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound state [46] - Corn: It is expected to have short - term interval oscillation. The supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, and the price is affected by factors such as supply sources and substitution [48] - Soybean Meal: Being cautious about chasing long on the 05 contract is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports, Brazilian shipping, and oil prices [49] - Oils and Fats: Reducing long positions gradually is recommended. The prices are expected to be in a high - level range. Although there is a short - term de - stocking expectation, the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [50][55]