铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Middle East situation is in a high - pressure tug - of - war. The market is trading around the possibility of a turning point in US - Iran negotiations, but the news is still fluctuating. All kinds of assets are expected to maintain high volatility in the short term [2]. - A - shares may continue to oscillate and repair in the short term, and the bond market will maintain an oscillating pattern [3]. - Precious metals are expected to continue to rebound in the short term, but it is too early to say that the adjustment is over [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend in the short term [6]. - Aluminum prices may remain under pressure and oscillate for some time, but the fundamentals provide support at the bottom [7]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate with a short - term preference and face greater pressure in the medium - to - long term [9]. - Cast aluminum is mainly in wide - range oscillations dominated by macro - emotions [10]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and relatively strong repair in the short term [11]. - Lead prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [12]. - Tin prices will have a weak rebound in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted [13]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [14]. - Lithium carbonate futures are expected to oscillate and rebound at a high level in the short term [15]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and be relatively strong. Double - coking futures are expected to oscillate at a high level [16][17][19]. - Bean and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate and decline in the short term, and palm oil is expected to oscillate and decline and adjust in the short term [21][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US - Iran conflict is in a high - pressure tug - of - war. The market is trading around the possibility of a turning point in negotiations, with stocks rising, the US dollar index rising, and gold, silver, and oil prices fluctuating. The navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable affecting oil prices and inflation expectations [2]. - Domestic: A - shares continued to rebound and repair, with small - cap and science - innovation sectors leading the rise. The bond market was generally warm, but the 30 - year interest rate rose marginally. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and repair in the short term, and the bond market will maintain an oscillating pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to rebound. The US submitted a 15 - point cease - fire proposal to Iran, but Iran refused. The short - term price of precious metals is expected to continue to rebound, but it is too early to say the adjustment is over [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper continued to rebound. The macro situation is gradually improving, and the fundamentals show that the supply growth rate of concentrates is low, and the global refined copper production capacity is difficult to expand. Copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend in the short term [6]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, and LME aluminum fell slightly. The US - Iran negotiation situation is unclear, and the aluminum price may remain under pressure and oscillate. The domestic consumption is recovering, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply side may face the shutdown of 250,000 tons of production capacity [7]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the alumina futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The policy of bauxite in Guinea is not clear, and the futures position has decreased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate with a preference, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is large [9]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures price rose. The US - Iran negotiation situation is uncertain, and the market sentiment fluctuates. The cost support is stable, and the supply and demand are slowly rising. Cast aluminum is mainly in wide - range oscillations [10]. 3.7 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc oscillated, and LME zinc rose slightly. The CZSPT's second - quarter import ore processing fee guidance price decreased significantly, indicating a tightening of zinc ore supply. Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and relatively strong repair in the short term [11]. 3.8 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead oscillated slightly higher, and LME lead rose. The production of electrolytic lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead is at a low level. The demand improvement is limited, and lead prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [12]. 3.9 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin first rose and then fell, and LME tin rose. The US - Iran cease - fire negotiation situation dominates the market. Tin prices have a weak rebound driven by market sentiment, but the rebound height is restricted [13]. 3.10 Nickel - On Wednesday, Shanghai nickel continued to rebound. The macro situation is gradually improving, and the cost side is supported by policies and sulfur supply. Nickel prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [14]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, the lithium carbonate futures price rose. The US - Iran situation is still tense, and the supply from Zimbabwe is uncertain. The inventory is at a low level, and lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate and rebound at a high level in the short term [15]. 3.12 Steel and Iron - Steel: On Wednesday, steel futures oscillated. The terminal demand is recovering, and steel prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger [16]. - Iron ore: On Wednesday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The demand from steel mills is increasing, and the supply is also rising. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and be relatively strong [17]. - Double - coking: On Wednesday, double - coking futures oscillated and adjusted. The upstream production is increasing and the inventory is decreasing, and double - coking is expected to oscillate at a high level [18][19]. 3.13 Agricultural Products - Bean and rapeseed meal: On Wednesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures fell. The US soybean inventory is expected to be at a six - year high, and the Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. The demand may weaken in the future, and the prices are expected to oscillate and decline [20][21]. - Palm oil: On Wednesday, palm oil futures fell. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil is good, but the US - Iran conflict and the Indonesian B50 policy still have an impact. Palm oil is expected to oscillate and decline and adjust in the short term [22].