日度策略参考-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - External shocks still exist, but there is a short-term window of relief and moderation in the capital market. The probability of a short-term oversold rebound in stock indices has increased. In the long run, stock indices are still bullish. [1] - Bond markets are expected to fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit-taking behavior in trading. [1] - The situation in the Middle East remains complex, affecting the prices of various commodities. Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and geopolitical factors. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Indices - External shocks persist, but short-term oversold rebound probability rises due to marginal changes in US attitude and potential opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Policy support may increase after market decline. In the long run, stock indices are bullish. [1] Bonds - Fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors including allocation demand, monetary policy easing expectations, fiscal supply pressure, and trading profit-taking. [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: After an oversold rebound, pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation. [1] - Aluminum: Price fluctuations intensify, but supply disruptions support prices. Monitor the production dynamics of Middle Eastern aluminum plants. [1] - Alumina: Rising prices are supported by factors such as energy prices, freight, and potential export quotas in Guinea, but the supply surplus limits the upside. [1] - Zinc: After a rebound due to improved market sentiment, investors are advised to wait and see due to high uncertainty in the Middle East. [1] - Nickel: Prices may be volatile and bullish due to cost concerns from export taxes in Indonesia. Pay attention to RKAB approvals, policies, and macro sentiment. Look for low-buying opportunities while controlling risks. [1] - Stainless Steel: Futures prices are volatile and bullish. Pay attention to demand acceptance. Short-term operations with low-buying opportunities and risk control are recommended. [1] - Tin: After a rebound, investors are advised to wait and see due to high uncertainty in the Middle East. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: Prices rebound as oil prices and dollar liquidity tensions ease, but geopolitical risks remain, and prices may fluctuate. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Prices rebound but are limited by geopolitical factors. Short-term wide-range fluctuations are expected. [1] Industrial Silicon - Supply is resuming, demand is weak, and inventories are being reduced. [1] Polysilicon - There are liquidity risks, with strong storage demand but weak power demand. [1] Carbonate Lithium - In the de-stocking cycle, with low total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average. Prices are mainly supported by costs. [1] Black Metals - Rebar: In the de-stocking cycle, with low demand. Prices are mainly supported by costs. Treat it as a volatile market. [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: Supply and demand are strong, in the de-stocking cycle, but inventory levels are high. Test the de-stocking pressure. Use a volatile mindset and consider positive arbitrage positions. [1] - Iron Ore: Short-term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts and cost support are positive factors. [1] - Silicon Iron: Short-term supply and demand are weak, and prices fluctuate due to geopolitical conflicts. [1] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Prices are volatile. [1] - Soda Ash: Follows glass. In the short term, affected by geopolitical conflicts; in the medium term, supply is more abundant, and prices are under pressure. [1] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal may have a rapid and sharp rebound, but the development of the war is uncertain. If the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, many varieties may reach their peak, and long positions should be closed in time. [1] Oils and Fats - After a high and then a fall, the expected driving force from crude oil weakens. Be wary of profit-taking and potential callbacks. Long-term bullish view remains. Pay attention to factors such as Indonesian biodiesel production, US biodiesel policies, and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: Internationally, global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, high inventory, weak restocking willingness, and import substitution pressure exist. Prices are expected to rise in the long run with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations. [1] - Sugar: Globally, there is a structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestically, supply is abundant, and the market is shifting from tight balance to slight surplus. Zheng sugar is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal-strong and external-weak pattern. [1] - Corn: With increased supply and reduced trading sentiment, the short-term market is expected to fluctuate and correct, but the correction range is limited. [1] - Soybean and Soybean Meal: In May, soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the market is expected to reflect delivery pressure. Wait for a correction to layout long positions in the far month. The M5 - M9 spread may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to be in a reverse spread. [1] - Paper Pulp: The fundamental situation is weak, and short-term weak fluctuations are expected. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, expectations are strong. Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages and have reduced production. [1] - Fuel Oil: Supply is affected by the Middle East situation, and there are concerns about supply interruptions. [1] - Asphalt: The impact of Iranian imports is limited, but the price of crude oil affects asphalt. [1] - Natural Rubber: The climate in the production area is normal, and normal tapping is expected. The futures-spot price difference is at a relatively high level. [1] - BR Rubber: The cost of butadiene has strong support, and there are expectations of increased exports. The profit of private cis-butadiene rubber plants is in deficit, and there are expectations of reduced production. [1] - PTA: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the supply risk is significant, and the polyester industry chain may face production decline. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: The market is affected by the Middle East situation, with shortages of raw materials and increased prices. [1] - Styrene: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, with supply shortages of ethylene and benzene, and non-integrated producers face profit losses. [1] - Urea: Export sentiment is weak, and there is limited upside. There is support from cost and anti-inversion. [1] - Methanol: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high, and inventory is at a historical high. [1] - PE and PVC: Affected by geopolitical factors, raw material supply is limited, and the fundamentals are weak. PVC has a more optimistic future outlook with potential capacity reduction. [1] - LPG: The price is affected by the Middle East situation, with a strong trend. The domestic PDH operating rate is declining, and the demand is short-term bearish. There is a divergence between the domestic and international markets. [1] Shipping - The container shipping market on the European route is affected by war sentiment. After the off-season in March, there are expectations of price increases. [1]