国际地缘因素冲击，塑料价格波动加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic plastic futures market is in a complex situation with strong cost support, weak demand, and differentiated inventory. In the short - term, due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the oil price is likely to rise and support the plastic price. With the ongoing domestic device maintenance, the supply is tightening, and the plastic futures price will maintain a strong - side shock. In the long - term, if the geopolitical conflict eases, the cost premium will fade, and the slow recovery of downstream demand and high social inventory will limit the price increase [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - In Q1 2026, the domestic plastic supply showed features of slower capacity expansion, more device maintenance, and a structural decline in the operating rate. The capacity expansion speed slowed down significantly, and there were only a small amount of new production capacity in early January. The industry entered the stage of digesting existing capacity, and the new supply pressure was significantly relieved [3]. - In March, the spring maintenance of domestic petrochemical enterprises led to a contraction in supply. By mid - March, the operating rate of the polyethylene (PE) industry dropped to 82.39%, 4.5 percentage points lower than in February. The weekly output decreased by 37500 tons, and the output affected by device maintenance reached 91000 tons. The profit of coal - based PE was over 1900 yuan/ton, while the oil - based PE was in continuous loss, with a loss of over 2000 yuan/ton, which forced high - cost oil - based capacity to reduce production and conduct maintenance, further intensifying the supply contraction [4]. Demand Side - After the Spring Festival, the downstream plastic product enterprises gradually resumed work, but the resumption rhythm was slower than in previous years. By mid - to late March, the operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film industry rose to 35.44%, and that of packaging film and pipe industries rose to about 50%. The PP downstream industries had different operating rates, and the overall downstream mainly had rigid demand for procurement. There were two main factors restricting demand: weak terminal consumption and slow export orders, and the high plastic price squeezing downstream profits. However, with the implementation of domestic policies, the demand for some plastic products is expected to improve [6][8][9]. Impact of Geopolitical Situation - The continuous escalation of the Middle - East conflict has become a core external variable affecting oil prices and plastic futures. The shipping volume of the Strait of Hormuz dropped by 92% in March, causing concerns about oil supply disruptions. The oil price rose sharply, and the cost of oil - based plastic increased, driving up the plastic price. But the impact of geopolitics on oil prices is short - term and uncertain [11].