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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The situation in Iran and rising oil prices are the main factors driving commodity fluctuations in the short term. There is an inverse correlation between the non - energy sectors such as the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors and oil prices, and there are inflation and recession risks. The domestic policy is proactive, and the economic structure is differentiated. It is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [1][2][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Pay attention to the tail - risk of the Iran situation. After the US - Israel air strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran launched a large - scale counter - attack. On March 19, the Middle East conflict escalated again, and the Qatar LNG facility was damaged. Subsequently, the situation cooled down. The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days. The US and Iran may hold talks in Islamabad, but Iran responded negatively to the US's war - ending proposal. The Iran situation mainly affects crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices have driven up the oil chemical and oilseed sectors, also raising concerns about inflation and economic recession. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a longer time, oil prices and related sectors may rise further. The disruption of Middle East natural gas supply may have a more profound impact on Asia - Pacific countries' power and energy supply and be transmitted to agricultural products [1] Global Interest Rate Situation - The Fed maintained interest rates at 3.5% - 3.75% on March 19. Powell said he would not leave the council before the investigation ended and would not cut interest rates until inflation improved. The US 3 - month composite PMI unexpectedly dropped to 51.4. The Bank of England maintained interest rates and removed the "rate - cut" wording. The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged, and the ECB maintained interest rates at 2%. Due to the Middle East conflict, the ECB's policy stance became tougher. The eurozone's March PMI dropped to 50.5, a 10 - month low. Rising oil prices have led to a special copper - oil seesaw pattern, with an inverse correlation between the non - ferrous and energy sectors [2] Domestic Policy and Economy - In 2026, the government's economic growth target is 4.5% - 5%, the deficit rate is about 4%, and the deficit scale is 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year. The general public budget expenditure will reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan. A 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bond will be issued. In February, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. In February, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 39.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail was 2.8%, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3%. The real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [3] Commodity Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. There is an inverse correlation between the non - ferrous, precious metals sectors and oil prices. Indonesia plans to levy export tariffs on coal and nickel. The IEA has approved the release of a record 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves. The EU has simplified some natural gas import rules, Russia is considering early "gas cut - off" to Europe, and South Korea has launched a resource security crisis warning. The oilseed sector in agricultural products is affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices. The black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [4] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [5] Important News - On March 24, Trump said the US was in communication with Iran, and Iran hoped to reach an agreement. The US proposed a one - month cease - fire plan to discuss a 15 - point agreement to end the war. The Fed's Barr said interest rates may need to be maintained at a stable level for some time to deal with inflation. Nickel prices rose after Indonesia approved export tariffs on nickel. Iran's permanent mission to the UN stated that non - hostile ships could pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely under certain conditions [7]