主力合约估值逐步清晰，远月合约或仍面临情绪端扰动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The valuation of the main contract EC2604 is gradually becoming clear, but the far - month contracts may still face emotional disturbances. The 6, 7, and 8 - month contracts in the peak season have strong expectations, but the actual freight rates are still uncertain. The blockade of the Mandeb Strait by the Houthi rebels may drive up the freight rates of far - month contracts [4][5][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes from different shipping companies for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in different weeks and months are provided, including quotes from Gemini Cooperation, HPL, MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance, etc. [1] 3.2 Geopolitical Situation - An Iranian military source said that Iran is monitoring the enemy's movements. If the enemy takes actions in Iranian territory or increases Iran's defense costs through maritime activities, Iran will respond. Iran has the ability to threaten the Mandeb Strait. [2] 3.3 Supply Situation - Static Supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU have been delivered in 2026. The delivery expectations for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU ships from 2026 to 2029 are provided. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small. [2][3] - Dynamic Supply: The weekly average capacity of China - European base ports from March to May is given. There are TBNs and empty flights in April and May. [3] 3.4 Contract Analysis - Main Contract EC2604: Maersk's freight rate in the second week of April decreased. The valuation of the April contract is gradually clear, but due to geopolitical risks, the volatility of the contract may be amplified. It is recommended that investors follow the spot market and operate flexibly. [4] - Peak - season Contracts (6, 7, 8 months): The expectations for these contracts are strong. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of 2026, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the Asian - European demand side. However, the actual freight rates are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly. [5][6] 3.5 Market Impact - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Mandeb Strait may drive up the freight rates of far - month contracts. Since December 2023, the number of ships passing through the Aden Gulf has decreased significantly. [7] 3.6 Shipping Company News - On March 25, COSCO Shipping Lines resumed new booking business for ordinary containers to Middle - East Gulf countries. However, ships will not pass through the Hormuz Strait directly but will use land transfer after reaching ports on the east side of the strait. [7] 3.7 Market Data - As of March 25, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes is 38,261.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 35,860.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are also given. [8] 3.8 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Arbitrage: Long EC2606 and short EC2610 [9]