农需走弱，工业需求走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation; Inter - period: Observation; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural demand for urea is weakening while the industrial demand is strengthening. The ex - factory price of urea spot has reached the March guidance price, and the price is mainly stable during the key period of spring plowing supply guarantee and price stability. The off - season storage starts to be fully released in March. Affected by geopolitical conflict news, the bulk market has corrected, the urea futures market has fluctuated, and spot trading has slowed down. Supply has decreased slightly due to more temporary failures. In the demand side, the application of green - turning fertilizer in the central region is nearly over, and spring plowing is in progress in the South China and Southwest regions. The operation rate of compound fertilizer has continued to rise, with good shipment of low - price orders and some resistance to high - price markets. The melamine market is in good sentiment, with rising prices, increasing operation rate, and rigid demand for procurement. Recently, industrial demand has increased, factory inventory has decreased, and port inventory has slightly decreased. The situation in Iran has caused a sharp rise in international urea prices, but there is no new news about domestic export quotas, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to Shandong and Henan urea small - particle prices, Henan basis, urea main contract closing price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][9] 3.2 Urea Production - Figures about urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided [24] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - The report shows figures on urea production cost, urea production profit, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural gas - based capacity utilization rate [22][29] 3.4 Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - Figures related to urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle and large - particle FOB in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China FOB, export profit, and on - disk export profit are presented [36][41][43] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Figures about compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, melamine capacity utilization rate, and pending order days are shown [49][54] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures related to factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, urea warehouse receipt quantity, urea main contract holding volume, and urea main contract trading volume are provided [50][59][58]