津巴布韦复产尚不明确，碳酸锂盘面价格大涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The recent rebound in the lithium carbonate futures market is due to the continued export ban in Zimbabwe with no sign of recovery, which may exceed market expectations. The supply-demand imbalance persists as the resumption time in Jianxiaowo and Zimbabwe remains uncertain. Although the new energy vehicle demand decreased year-on-year in March, it showed improvement week-on-week, providing support for lithium carbonate prices. With low inventory levels, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong, and short-term interval operations are recommended [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 25, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 156,880 yuan/ton and closed at 159,120 yuan/ton, a 4.34% increase from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 233,304 lots, and the open interest was 251,957 lots, down from 260,696 lots the previous day. The current basis is -5,480 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 618 lots to 31,460 lots [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 147,000 - 158,000 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 144,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton, also up 5,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,155 US dollars/ton, up 75 US dollars/ton [1]. - Most lithium salt plants have resumed production, and the domestic supply is generally stable. However, the export policy in Zimbabwe may restrict future supply growth. The weekly total production of lithium carbonate is 24,186 tons, including 14,914 tons from spodumene, 3,197 tons from mica, 3,565 tons from salt lakes, and 3,565 tons from recycling [1]. Inventory - The spot inventory is 98,873 tons, a decrease of 86 tons from the previous week. Among them, the smelter inventory increased by 316 tons to 16,608 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 458 tons to 46,105 tons, and other inventories decreased by 860 tons to 36,160 tons. The market is still in a destocking pattern, but the pace has slowed down [2]. Comprehensive Review - The export ban in Zimbabwe has lasted for a month with no sign of recovery, which may exceed market expectations. The resumption time in Jianxiaowo and Zimbabwe is still uncertain, and the supply-demand imbalance persists [2]. - From March 1 - 22, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 495,000 units, a 17% year-on-year decrease but a 66% increase from the previous month. Although the year-on-year decline is significant, the week-on-week improvement is obvious, indicating the resilience of electric vehicle demand and providing support for lithium carbonate prices [2]. Strategy - The recent futures market has been highly volatile. With the easing of the Middle East conflict, commodities have generally risen, and funds have rotated among sectors. The energy and chemical sectors, especially crude oil, have corrected, while the non-ferrous sector has rebounded. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong, and its price performance is more robust [3]. - Given the current low inventory levels, future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market. Short-term interval operations are recommended, and buying on dips is advisable [3]. - For trading strategies, short-term operations are recommended for single contracts, and there are no recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3][4].