市场成交尚可，铅价维持小幅上升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market presents a pattern of weak overseas and stable domestic conditions, with a game between supply and demand. Overseas lead prices have been dragged down by geopolitical factors to a nearly one - year low, while domestic lead prices have followed the decline but with a limited margin. The expanding losses of secondary lead and the destocking of primary lead factories provide phased support. There is a co - existence of high - pressure social inventory and downstream low - price restocking, and the opening of the import window brings an expectation of increased supply. Terminal demand is structurally differentiated, with bright orders in data centers but the civilian battery market entering the off - season. Next week, lead prices may decline first and then rebound, and downstream enterprises will maintain low - price just - in - time procurement. Investors should pay attention to the pace of social inventory destocking and the actual arrival of imported lead and operate with caution. It is expected that the lead price will range from 16,200 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton this week, and enterprises can conduct corresponding buy and sell hedging operations based on this range [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On March 25, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - 35.03 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,325 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by - 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,350 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,350 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,775 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On March 25, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,420 yuan/ton, closed at 16,495 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 57,581 lots, an increase of 8,292 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 79,125 lots, a decrease of 5,853 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,590 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,505 yuan/ton and closed at 16,490 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 25, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 283,150 tons, a decrease of 200 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral. For options, it is recommended to sell call options. Enterprises can conduct corresponding buy and sell hedging operations within the expected lead price range of 16,200 - 16,800 yuan/ton this week [3]