郑棉偏强震荡，白糖窄幅波动

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The global cotton supply-demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, the 25/26 season saw a significant increase in cotton production, but consumption has also increased due to the expansion of downstream spinning capacity. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is expected to be good, and commercial inventories are being depleted quickly. With the expected reduction in planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 season, the medium- to long-term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise [2]. - Sugar: The international sugar market is affected by the US-Iran conflict, and the new sugar season in Brazil may see a lower sugar production ratio, pushing up the raw sugar futures price. In China, the sugar cane harvest has been significantly delayed, with higher-than-expected production and high industrial inventories. The import volume of sugar from January to February has also increased significantly [5]. - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026 as overseas new production capacity has been limited in recent years, and major overseas broadleaf pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. In China, although there has been a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation in recent years, terminal demand has been insufficient, leading to high port inventories. However, the overall demand for pulp is expected to improve compared to last year [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,340 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,573 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1233, down 142 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 16,711 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1371, down 146 from the previous day [1]. - Market Information: The cotton price in Pakistan has risen significantly due to the Middle East tension. The market trading was light during the Eid al-Fitr holiday. The Middle East tension has led to shipping delays and increased import costs, squeezing the profit margins of textile enterprises [1]. Market Analysis - International: The global supply-demand pattern is still relatively loose this year, but it is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. The Northern Hemisphere is entering the key planting period, with uncertainties in planting area reduction and weather in major producing areas. The outlook for US cotton is still bullish [2]. - Domestic: China's cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and consumption has also increased. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is expected to be good, and commercial inventories are being depleted quickly. With the expected reduction in planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 season, the medium- to long-term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. The short-term upside space may be limited by the domestic and international price difference, and the issuance of additional quotas by the policy may also put pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the target price policy and the reduction in planting area in the new season, as well as the possibility of state reserve sales if the cotton price rises to a high level [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,429 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 + 31, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 - 109, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Market Information: The sugar industry in Maharashtra, India has called on the government to intervene to address financial pressure, including raising the minimum support price, increasing the ethanol production limit, and providing subsidies. The sugar cane production in the state has decreased by about 15% this year due to bad weather, and the crushing period has been shortened [4]. Market Analysis - International: The US-Iran conflict has led to expectations of high energy prices, and the new sugar season in Brazil may see a lower sugar production ratio, pushing up the raw sugar futures price. The short-term external market is expected to be significantly affected by the international situation, but the sufficient supply in the industry will also limit the upside [5]. - Domestic: The sugar cane harvest has been significantly delayed, with higher-than-expected production and high industrial inventories. The import volume of sugar from January to February has also increased significantly [5]. Strategy - Neutral. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar futures has weakened, but it is also difficult to fall sharply due to the Middle East situation. It is recommended to adopt a sideways trading strategy in the short term [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,224 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day [6]. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,235 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 11, down 14 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) in Shandong was 4,860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 - 364, down 14 from the previous day [6]. - Market Information: The spot price of imported wood pulp was generally stable, with slight declines in some cases. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a narrow range, and most traders were reluctant to adjust their quotes. The price of some grades in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong markets dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The import broadleaf pulp market was stable, with downstream buyers purchasing on a need-to basis. The import natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp markets showed no obvious improvement, with the price of natural pulp in the Guangdong market dropping by 50 yuan/ton and the price of chemical mechanical pulp remaining stable [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026 as overseas new production capacity has been limited in recent years, and major overseas broadleaf pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. Attention should be paid to whether the consumption in Europe and the United States can improve first, which would increase the proportion of trade pulp shipped to Europe and the United States and relieve the pressure on China's imports [7]. - Demand: Although there has been a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation in China in recent years, terminal demand has been insufficient, leading to high port inventories. However, the overall demand for pulp is expected to improve compared to last year as the paper production capacity continues to expand in 2026 [7]. Strategy - Neutral. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and port inventories are still high. The pulp price is expected to remain range-bound at a low level in the short term [7].